Calm Before the Storm: Trump vs. Biden Odds Unchanged in Election Leadup
Posted on: November 2, 2020, 01:26h.
Last updated on: November 2, 2020, 01:49h.
The 2020 betting odds on the presidential election have been relatively stable in the week leading up to the November 3 election.
William Hill has former Vice President Joe Biden at 8/15, a price that implies a winning chance of 65.22 percent for the 77-year-old. That line has remained unchanged for more than seven days.
Incumbent President Donald Trump is the underdog at 6/4 (40 percent chance), a price that has also remained steady. The 74-year-old president has been crisscrossing the nation in key battleground states in the days before tomorrow’s Election Day showdown.
2020 presidential odds on the online betting exchange PredictIt have also been quite flat. Biden’s shares of winning the White House are holding strong at 66 cents — up two cents from a week ago. Trump’s shares are at 41 cents — down one.
While tomorrow is the day, it might not be the day we know who will lead the nation for the next four years.
“When will the presidential election outcome be called?” has November 4 the betting favorite at 37 cents. Election Day is next at 26 cents, November 5 at 11 cents, and Nov. 6-7 at 10 cents. “After December 14” is at seven cents, the fifth-likeliest market option.
PredictIt Retains Betting Monopoly
Gamblers in the US can still not legally place a bet on a political outcome at a regulated sportsbook. There are now 20 states with sports betting operational, but no state gaming regulatory has yet approved political betting.
PredictIt operates legally in the US through its issuance of a “no-action relief” letter from the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
In obtaining the no-action letter, PredictIt agreed to limit each market question to 5,000 traders, and an $850 cap on individual investments per market. PredictIt shares its data with the academic community, including MIT, Harvard, Yale, Duke, and University of Pennsylvania.
Biggest Betting Event in US History?
Since political betting is largely facilitated through online, offshore books, as well as legal bookmakers in the UK, it’s difficult — if not impossible — to determine just how much total cash is on the November 3 outcome. But there’s no disputing it’s a large number, likely one that runs 10 digits.
Betfair, a UK exchange that allows gamblers to buy and sell shares of political outcomes, says it expects its 2020 presidential market handle to eclipse a half of a billion dollars. In 2016, the site reported handle of less than $250 million on Trump versus Hillary Clinton.
Betfair confirmed that the 2020 White House showdown is its largest single betting event in its history. PredictIt told Casino.org that the Trump vs. Biden election is its most-traded market ever, more than 115 million shares bought and sold. PredictIt does not disclose financial numbers, but the market has long been capped after reaching its 5,000-trader ceiling.