California Voters Warming to Sports Betting, But Not Online

California, long the sports wagering industry’s Moby Dick, may be open to approving that form of wagering, but there’s a catch.

A new Citrin-POLITICO poll indicates that half of registered voters in the most populous state are on board with allowing sportsbooks at tribal casinos, but the same percentage aren’t on board with online sports betting. The poll says just 37% of respondents approve of internet sports wagering in the Golden State.

Still, California voters’ sentiment around both sportsbooks at tribal casinos and online sports betting has softened materially since 2022 when voters there soundly rejected Propositions 26 and 27. The former proposed allowing sportsbooks at tribal casinos and racetracks while Prop 27 was an online sports betting effort backed by commercial gaming entities.

Good News for Tribes, Maybe Not Bettors

California is home to some of the largest and highest-grossing tribal casinos in the country and the Native American tribes behind those gaming venues hold considerable political sway in the state.

As such, any effort to expand legalized wagering in the state runs through the tribes — a lesson online sportsbook operators learned the hard way in 2022. California voters’ softer views on tribal sportsbooks are positive news for the tribes because they’ve indicated there’d be a multi-year period, though likely short, in which sports betting in California would be available solely on a brick-and-mortar basis.

From there, it’s possible that internet sports betting would be introduced across the state, but how that effort shapes up remains to be seen.

What is clear is that positive polling or not, California tribes aren’t in a rush to push the sports betting issue. Previously, some tribal leaders indicated sports betting was a 2026 issue at the earliest, but there is no related ballot measure for voters to consider this year.

How California Sports Betting Could Shape Up

Assuming a refreshed effort to bring retail sports betting to life in California includes the state’s three racetracks, it could be available at approximately 65 locations when accounting for the 60-plus tribal casinos.

But without online betting, revenue-generating opportunities could be capped and California could be left with a sports betting model that resembles Washington State, not Florida or New York.

Speculating as to how the state’s online sports betting industry could shape up, assuming voters approve it in the future, is the fun part. Obviously, California tribes would run that show, but their willingness to embrace commercial partners may be limited because some of those companies also operate prediction markets. California tribes have consistently said prediction markets violate state gaming laws and pose threats to tribal sovereignty.

There’s some speculation, though unconfirmed, that commercial operators that weren’t involved with Prop 27 and those staying away from prediction markets may have opportunities to partner with tribes if online sports betting is eventually legalized in California.