Caesars, MGM PTs Lowered as Tariff Uncertainty Plagues Casino Stocks

Posted on: April 23, 2025, 02:55h. 

Last updated on: April 23, 2025, 02:55h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • Tariff volatility is pressuring casino stocks, including Las Vegas-focused operators
  • Caesars, MGM pricing in dour consumer outcomes, says analyst

Casino stocks have been drubbed this year as tariff-induced volatility has plagued the gaming complex as well as the broader market.

Las Vegas hotel tax tourism LVCVA
The Las Vegas Strip is seen at night. An analyst lowered price targets on a slew of casino stocks. (Image: Shutterstock)

Las Vegas-focused operators, such as Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR) and MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM), are among the most punished names. Those stocks are down 19.34% and 10.97%, respectively, year-to-date as market participants have priced in borderline worst case scenarios for consumer cyclical equities, including gaming fare. Some analysts say things aren’t as bad as they appear.

With Buy rated CZR & MGM trading at their lowest levels since COVID, investors are expecting the worst for the consumer,” said Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas in new report. “Still Q1 trends seem fine, our room survey has not seen any significant week on week deceleration, and management teams remain positive for now.”

Jonas did, however, lower his price targets on 11 gaming stocks, including Caesars and MGM. He took the Harrah’s operator to $40 from $48 while lowering the Bellagio operator to $45 from $50.

Risks Factored Into Some Casino Stocks

The White House’s tariff ambitions have plagued a variety of casino stocks with the ensuing carnage leaving no stones in the industry unturned. MGM and Caesars — the two largest operators on the Las Vegas Strip — are proving vulnerable.

As Jonas points out, the Strip is exposed to international visitation, with a significant portion of those visits attributable to Canadian and Mexican tourists — two countries that have been front-and-center in President Trump’s tariff plans.

For investors, it may be little compensation at this point, but the analyst adds the current state of affairs for Strip operators isn’t comparable to the global financial crisis when earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in the US casino hub plunged 35%. Another factor that was at play back then and isn’t a consideration today was significant new supply coming online in Sin City — a challenge against the backdrop of what was one of the worst economic settings in US history. Broadly speaking, Jonas believes the risks Caesars and MGM are contending with are priced into the stocks.

“While parts of Vegas could benefit from consumer trade-down (e.g. Vegas trip instead of more expensive Europe), Vegas is certainly not as cheap as it once was. Ultimately we see CZR and MGM risks as more than factored into current valuation,” notes the analyst.

REITs: Shelters from the Storm

Las Vegas isn’t entirely a lost cause for investors. While casino stocks appear to be indicating as much, there are winners in the forms of landlords, namely VICI Properties (NYSE: VICI) and Gaming and Leisure Properties (NYSE: GLPI).

The latter has small exposure to Las Vegas, but the former is the biggest owner of casino real estate in the city. Both stocks are up year-to-date. VICI’s 11.30% 2025 rally may be a sign that things aren’t reaching crisis levels for casino operators because the real estate investment trust (REIT) owns Caesars Palace, the Venetian, and most of MGM’s Las Vegas gaming land.

“REIT cash flows have weathered multiple storms with limited impact,” notes Jonas. “We continue to favor both GLPI and VICI here given our view of their rock solid dividend profile.”

The analyst lifted his price target on VICI to $38 from $35, making that the only casino-related stock he extended that bullish treatment to today.