Biden Extends Betting Lead Throughout Election Day, Polls Soon Closing
Posted on: November 3, 2020, 02:01h.
Last updated on: November 3, 2020, 02:19h.
Americans are casting their votes today in a presidential election, as they have every four years since 1788. And for the 2020 contest, former Vice President Joe Biden is the odds-on favorite to win.
The 77-year-old Biden was the betting favorite last night, and has sustained and extended his front-runner position on Election Day. Biden would be 78 years old at the time of his January 2021 inauguration, which would make him the oldest US president at the start of his presidency by nearly eight years.
In the UK, where betting on US political elections is legal, bookmaker William Hill has Biden at -225 as of 5 pm ET here in the United States. Those odds imply a winning chance of 69.23 percent, with a gambler needing to risk $225 to win $100.
Biden’s odds at William Hill have improved during Election Day. As of this morning, the Democratic challenger was at -188 (implied odds 65.22 percent). Trump’s line has slightly lengthened. The President’s odds of winning another four years have gone from +150 (40 percent) to +188 (34.78 percent).
London-based Betfair, which expects to facilitate more than $500 million in election trades on its betting exchange, has Biden at -225 and Trump at +200.
All Eyes on US
More than $1 billion will be wagered legally on the outcome of Trump versus Biden. The 2020 contest is the most bet-on presidential race in US history.
Unfortunately for US residents who want to put some action on who they think will emerge victorious, no state allows its regulated sports betting operators to accept such wagering. However, there is one avenue.
PredictIt is the lone betting exchange that’s legal for US residents to wager on. The site allows players to buy and sell up to $850 worth of shares of a political outcome.
As for who will win the presidential election, Biden’s shares are trading at 66 cents. That’s the same price they’ve been for about a week. Trump is at 40 cents. Winning shares are redeemed at $1.
Key battleground states include Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona. Trump leads on PredictIt in North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida — Biden in the four others.
Stock Market Indicator?
Republicans are hoping for yet another presidential betting upset. The stock market suggests they might get just that.
Per Fox Business, the S&P 500 has predicted the winner of 87 percent of US presidential elections, and every one since 1984. If the index posts a gain in the three months up to the election, it signals a victory for the incumbent party candidate — in this case, Trump.
The S&P gained 1.2 percent from July 31 through Monday. Markets were up big across the board on Election Day, the Dow Jones two percent, Nasdaq 1.85 percent, and S&P 1.78 percent.
But the 2020 election deals with much more than the economy. COVID-19, the US Supreme Court, health care, crime, foreign policy, guns, immigration, race and ethnic inequality, climate change, and abortion are some of the leading issues, per Pew Research.
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