Alabama College Football Odds Lengthen Following Tua Season-Ending Injury, Ohio State and LSU Favorites

Posted on: November 18, 2019, 01:00h. 

Last updated on: October 9, 2020, 09:15h.

The Alabama Crimson Tide’s college football odds have lengthened significantly following the season-ending hip injury to superstar quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

college football odds Alabama Tua
Tua Tagovailoa’s season is over, and oddsmakers setting college football odds believe so is Alabama’s title shot. (Image: Wesley Hitt/Getty)

The junior QB exited the second quarter of the Crimson Tide’s 38-7 victory over Mississippi State. Prior to his injury, Tagovailoa appeared to plead with Alabama head coach Nick Saban to remain in the game for one final drive to close out the half. The Tide was up 35-7 at the time of the injury.

Tagovailoa suffered a posterior wall fracture, and is finished for the year.

We can second-guess ourselves all we want,” Saban said. “We were going to go two-minute before the half, and Tua wanted to go in the game. I don’t really make a lot of decisions about guys getting hurt.”

Prior to Tua’s injury, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas had Alabama at 6/1 to win the College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship. That was the fourth-shortest line, behind only LSU and Ohio State (2/1), and Clemson (7/2).

Now, Alabama is at 18/1 (implied odds of 5.26 percent). A $100 bet would return $1,800 if Saban and new QB Mac Jones can find a way to win the team’s sixth title since 2009. Jones was 7-11 for 94 yards Saturday. 

Caesars and FanDuel have ‘Bama even longer at 30/1. Tua was also a Heisman Trophy frontrunner, his odds at 10/1 prior to his exit. His odds have since been removed.

PSU vs. Ohio State Showdown

The College Football Playoff rankings won’t be unveiled until Tuesday, but next Saturday’s game of the week is unquestionably Penn State (9-1) vs. Ohio State (10-0). The Big Ten schools are respectively ranked No. 2 and No. 9 in the AP Top 25 Poll.

The winner will have a great chance to secure one of the four playoff spots, assuming they go on to win their final game and the Big Ten Championship.

The Buckeyes are heavy favorites playing at home in Columbus. Ohio State is spotting Penn State 19 points, with the over/under at 59.5 points.

Kickoff is scheduled for 12 noon ET. The ESPN Football Power Index computer simulator says the Buckeyes have an 84.3 percent chance of winning, and the Nittany Lions a 15.7 percent chance.

Title Picture

The CFP rankings are expected to include LSU, OSU, Clemson, and Georgia when they’re released tomorrow night.

LSU is expected to make easy work of their final two regular season opponents – vs. Arkansas and vs. Texas A&M. Ohio State has two difficult challenges remaining in Penn State, and then at No. 15 Michigan.

Clemson’s schedule has been easy all year. That won’t change with its final game at unranked South Carolina. Georgia should feel comfortable with its two remaining games, vs. Texas A&M, and at Georgia Tech.

With the easiest remaining regular season and conference title game, Clemson is tied for the shortest title odds at FanDuel. The Tigers are at 2/1, a line shared with Ohio State.

LSU is next (5/1), and Georgia fourth (9/1). The championship odds lengthen greatly from there, Alabama and Oregon fifth at 30/1. Utah is 40/1, and then it’s Baylor, Minnesota, and Penn State at 200/1.