The Sports Betting Basics: Setting the Line, Underdogs vs Favorites, Spread, Moneyline and Total

The TL;DR

• Setting the Line: Learn how oddsmakers set the initial odds for a sporting event. This process involves analyzing various factors such as team performance, player statistics, and historical matchups, which ultimately influence the odds you’ll see.

• Underdogs vs Favorites: Discover the difference between underdogs and favorites and how these terms are crucial for your betting strategies. Favorites are expected to win, thus offering lower returns, while underdogs come with higher risk but also the potential for larger payouts.

• The Spread: Dive into the meaning of “the spread” and how it impacts your bets. The point spread is a tool used by bookmakers to level the playing field, making it possible to bet on either team with more balanced odds.

• Moneyline: Familiarize yourself with the moneyline, which presents odds in terms of potential payoffs on a straightforward win/lose bet. This format simplifies the betting process, focusing solely on the outcome of the event without considering point spreads.

• Totals (Over/Under): Explore the significance of totals in sports betting, where you predict whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under a predetermined number set by the bookmaker. This bet type adds an exciting element to any game as it keeps you engaged until the final score.

Sports betting has exploded in popularity in recent years, especially in America. Following the 2018 Supreme Court decision to overturn the federal ban on sports betting, known as PASPA, we have now seen roughly 40 US states legalize wagering within their borders. 

As a result, millions of Americans are looking to give sports betting a try, joining the tens of millions of others across the globe who can already bet legally in countries like the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil and more. 

However, for the uninitiated, sports betting can be incredibly complex and confusing. It’s impossible to become a winning bettor overnight. It takes time, experience and commitment to learn how to make a smart bet and turn a profit.

For those looking to place a bet for the first time, the most important first step is understanding the rules of the road and how the game is played. 

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Underdogs vs Favorites

• The Basics: In sports betting, the “favorite” is the team or individual expected to win, typically indicated by lower odds or negative point spreads, reflecting public opinion or statistical analysis. The “underdog,” conversely, is the entrant expected to lose, marked by higher odds or positive spreads, as they are perceived to have a lesser chance of winning.

• Betting Odds and Payouts: Since favorites are expected to win, betting on them usually yields smaller payouts due to higher perceived probability. In contrast, underdogs offer higher potential returns because they are less likely to win, making them riskier but more profitable if they defeat the odds.

• Strategic Considerations: Betting strategies often revolve around identifying incorrectly assessed odds where underdogs may have a higher chance of winning than implied. Bettors may also back favorites to hedge against perceived uncertainties, creating a dynamic betting environment driven by both statistical insights and human instincts

Before bettors are able to place a wager on a sporting event, either at an in-person sportsbook located inside a casino or at an online sportsbook or mobile app, oddsmakers must first “set the line” on the matchup. This is also referred to as “creating the odds.”

The first step in setting the line is determining who the favorite is and who the underdog is. 

Generally speaking, the favorite is the “better” team who is expected to win the game, while the underdog, or “dog” for short, is the worse team who is expected to lose the game.

The favorite receives a minus sign (-) in front of their odds, while the underdog receives a plus sign (+). If the teams are considered completely even, the game is set as a “pick’em,” or “pick,” for short.

How the Odds Are Set

Determining which team is the favorite and which team is the underdog is not just based upon who has the better won-loss record or more star players. Instead, it’s determined by the oddsmakers’ power ratings.

Before every season, oddsmakers create power ratings for each team and then update them throughout the year. Power Ratings are a numerical value given to each team based upon their relative strength and weakness compared to one another. The best teams receive the highest power rating while the worst teams receive the lowest. 

By comparing each team’s power ratings in a head-to-head matchup, the oddsmakers can quickly determine which team is favored over the other and by how much.

Once the power ratings spit out a rough estimate of what the odds should be, oddsmakers then make adjustments to the odds based upon several other factors including home field advantage, injuries, scheduling and even the weather. 

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Spread Betting

• The Basics: Spread betting in sports involves betting on the margin of victory in a game rather than just the outright winner. The sportsbook sets a “point spread” to level the playing field, meaning you can bet on whether a team will win by more than the spread (cover the spread) or lose by less or win outright.

• Evening the Odds: The point spread is designed to make a game more appealing for betting by effectively handicapping the favorite and giving the underdog a theoretical boost. This aims to create an even betting field where wagering on either side provides a closer to equal chance of winning.

• Payouts and Risks: Spread betting typically involves a standard vigorish or “juice,” often around -110, meaning you must bet $110 to win $100. Winning a spread bet depends on accurately predicting whether the result will be above or below the sportsbook’s set line.

• Impact of Half Points: Sometimes, sportsbooks set spreads using half points (e.g., -3.5) to avoid ties, commonly known as a “push.” This ensures that all bets result in a win or loss, which can be crucial in understanding and strategizing your bets.

Because favorites win most of the time, oddsmakers must make betting more fair and appealing by providing pros to betting underdogs and cons to betting favorites. This is reflected in the price of the odds.

The most common way to bet on a football or basketball game is the spread. This is because the scoring can be high and the margin of victory vast. The spread is a certain amount of points taken away from the favorite and given to the underdog. In gambling jargon, the favorite “lays” points and the underdog “gets” points. 

Betting the Spread Example

For example, let’s say the Patriots are facing the Jets and the Patriots are a 3-point favorite. Bettors can then decide whether to “lay” the points with the Patriots (-3) or “take” the points with the Jets (+3). 

If you wanted to bet on the Patriots spread (-3), New England would have to win the game by 4-points or more in order for you to “cover” and win your bet. On the other hand, if you took the Jets spread (+3), New York would have to either win the game straight up or lose by 2-points or less in order for you to cover the spread and win your bet. 

If the Patriots win the game by exactly three points, that would be considered a push and anyone who took Patriots -3 or Jets +3 would get their money back. 

Spreads can also include half points. So, if the Jets were +3.5 and ended up losing by exactly 3-points, anyone who bet on the New York spread would win their bet. The extra half point is popularly referred to as “the hook,” which is incredibly consequential and often the difference between a win, loss and push.

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Moneyline Betting

• The Basics: Moneyline betting is one of the simplest forms of sports betting, where you wager on which team, player, or competitor will win a game or match. Unlike point spread betting, the margin of victory is irrelevant; all that matters is who wins outright.

• Odds Explanation: Moneyline odds are typically represented in American format, showing how much you need to bet to win $100 (negative odds) or how much you’d win from a $100 bet (positive odds). For example, -150 odds mean you need to bet $150 to win $100, while +200 odds mean you would win $200 from a $100 bet.

• Risk and Reward: The favorite in a matchup will have negative moneyline odds, indicating a higher chance of winning but offering a smaller payout relative to the amount wagered. Conversely, the underdog will have positive odds, reflecting a lower probability of winning but offering a larger potential payout.

• Choosing Bets: Beginners should start with games or matches they understand well and observe how odds fluctuate based on factors such as injuries, team form, and public betting patterns. It’s also crucial to manage bankroll and set a budget to avoid excessive losses.

In addition to the spread, bettors can also wager on a favorite or underdog using the moneyline. 

The moneyline is based solely upon which team wins the game. The margin of victory does not matter. It can be by 1 point or 50 points. All that matters is winning the game straight up. 

Moneylines are available for all sports but are most common in baseball, hockey and soccer where scoring is typically lower and margins of victory can be just one run or one goal.

Moneyline Betting Example

For example, a 3-point favorite in football converts to a moneyline price of roughly -165, while the 3-point underdog price converts to a money line price of roughly +135. 

This means that if you wanted to place a moneyline wager on the favorite, you would need to risk $165 in order to win $100. If the favorite wins, you win $100 and get your initial $165 back. On the flip side, if you risked $100 on the underdog at +135, you would win $135 if the dog pulled off the upset, plus get your initial $100 wager back.

With moneylines, there is always a winner and loser, with no chance of a game ending in a tie or “push.”

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Total Betting

• The Basics: Total betting, often referred to as over/under betting, involves wagering on whether the total score or points of both teams in a game will be over or under a specified number set by the sportsbook. This form of betting is not concerned with which team wins but rather the overall score in the game.

• Research and Analysis: Before placing a total bet, it’s important for beginners to research team statistics, player performances, weather conditions, and historical matchups. Factors such as team offensive and defensive strengths can significantly impact the total score, and understanding these elements can help make more informed bets.

• Bankroll Management: Setting a budget and managing your bankroll is crucial for long-term success in sports betting. Beginners should only wager amounts they can afford to lose and consider using a percentage of their total bankroll for each bet, rather than a fixed sum, to reduce the risk of significant losses.

• Strategy Development: Developing a consistent betting strategy can help improve your chances of success. This could involve focusing on specific sports or leagues you are familiar with, identifying trends in scoring patterns, or adjusting your bets based on changes in team dynamics or conditions leading up to the game.

The second most common way to bet on a sporting event, after betting either the favorite or the underdog on the spread or moneyline, is wagering on the total combined points scored by both teams. This is referred to as the total or “over/under.”

Once again, the total is determined based upon the power ratings set by the oddsmakers. If both teams possess high powered offenses and lackluster defenses, the total will be set higher. If both teams have stifling defenses and also struggle to score points, the total is set lower. For outdoor sports like football and baseball, the weather can also have a big impact on the total. 

Total Betting Example

A common total in an NFL game is roughly 45 points. This means that if you wanted to bet the over, both teams would need to combine to score 46 points or more in order for you to win the bet. Conversely, if you wanted to bet the under, both teams would need to combine to score 44 points or less. 

If both teams combined to score exactly 45 points, that would be considered a “push,” which means the game ended in a tie and you would get your money back. 

It’s important to note that Totals take into account points scored in overtime as well, not just regulation.

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Prop Betting

• The Basics: Proposition bets, commonly known as prop bets, are wagers placed on specific events or outcomes within a game that are not directly tied to the final result or score. They can include a wide range of scenarios, such as individual player performances or team statistics.

• Variety: Prop bets offer a diverse range of options, from simple outcomes like the total number of points a player will score to more eclectic wagers, such as the result of the coin toss or the color of Gatorade poured on the winning coach in the Super Bowl.

• Entertainment Value: Often considered more entertaining and engaging than traditional bets, prop bets allow fans to focus on specific dynamic aspects of the game, enhancing the viewing experience and providing opportunities to bet on moments within the game rather than just the final outcome.

• Strategy and Research: Successful prop betting may require understanding the sport’s dynamics and conducting research on specific players’ statistics, historical performance, and game conditions. While they can be unpredictable, informed knowledge can increase the likelihood of making successful prop bets.

Prop bets, or proposition bets, have swiftly become an exciting and imaginative element of sports betting, capturing the attention of seasoned gamblers and rookies alike. Unlike traditional bets that focus on the outcome of a game or match, prop bets allow individuals to wager on specific events or occurrences within the event, ranging from the performance of a particular player to quirky and unexpected happenings.

Types of Prop Bets

Prop bets generally fall into two categories: player props and game props. Player props focus on individual athlete performances, such as the number of goals a player might score in a soccer match, total passing yards for a quarterback in a football game, or strikeouts by a particular pitcher in baseball.

Game props, on the other hand, are centered around aspects of the game itself. These might include betting on the total number of fouls in a basketball game, whether overtime will occur, or predicting which team scores first.

Additionally, prop bets aren’t confined strictly to sports. Entertainment props, particularly popular during major events such as the Oscars or popular reality TV shows, allow bettors to wager on outcomes such as the best actor winner or who gets eliminated in a particular episode.

Understanding the Basics

The world of sports betting offers an exciting and dynamic way for fans to engage with their favorite sports. With a multitude of betting options, odds formats, and strategies, there’s something for both the novice and the seasoned bettor.

However, responsible gambling is key to ensuring that the experience remains enjoyable and rewarding. By staying informed and making use of the resources available, bettors can enhance their understanding and make more informed decisions.

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FAQ: Sports Betting Basics

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