VEGAS BETTING REPORT: Patriots Rout Raiders, Underdogs Deliver as Sportsbooks Navigate Wild NFL Week 5

The New England Patriots’ 45-17 rout of the Las Vegas Raiders yesterday (Oct. 11) was a welcome result for Las Vegas sportsbooks, with a “fair” amount of money wagered on the Raiders, according to Bob Scucci, vice-president of race and sports operations at Boyd Gaming Corp.

That was a primary storyline from 13 games on the National Football League (NFL) slate for Week 5 yesterday (Oct. 11), with one more game scheduled for tonight (Oct. 12) – the Buffalo Bills visiting SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Rams.

“We were a small loser to break even,” said Scucci. “Biggest games for the bettors (and losers for us) were the Cincinnati Bengals over the Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings over the New Orleans Saints and the Detroit Lions over the Arizona Cardinals.”

Beyond the Patriots’ win, Scucci pointed to the Green Bay Packers’ 31-7 win over the Chicago Bears as a win for Boyd.

Underdogs Deliver Major Upsets

The San Francisco 49ers moved to 5-0 with a 32-29 win over the Seahawks in Seattle, making a Super Bowl statement. 

Underdogs delivered several big wins, led by the Packers over the Bears, the Baltimore Ravens’ 30-23 win over the Atlanta Falcons, and San Francisco’s win in Seattle.

The Detroit Lions beat the Arizona Cardinals 45-21, comfortably covering as a road favorite by 5.5 points, and pushing the Over well over the closing number of 55.

San Francisco Draws Bettors

“The best matchup of the day was San Francisco and Seattle,” he said. “Most of the money was on San Francisco, one of the only underdogs to draw more money than the favorite.

“The public is still having success betting against bad teams like the Dolphins, the Chargers and the Titans, so I’m sure that trend will continue.”

The 27-27 tie between the Washington Commanders and the New York Giants was a “roller-coaster” for the sportsbook, said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas.

Commanders-Giants Tie Creates Chaos

“The Commanders-Giants tie climbed, dropped, twisted and turned for four quarters, only to pull back into the station exactly where it started at the beginning of the game, 0-0,” he said. “In the closing minutes and overtime, the live Moneyline market was in complete chaos, with both teams alternating between longshots and heavy favorites as prices swung from +600 to -1000. 

“Every big play looked like it might decide the game and the book’s fate, only for the final whistle to leave everyone staring at the screen wondering what had just happened. It was ninety-plus minutes of drama, countless swings in perceived win probability, and in the end, nobody got the outcome they were expecting.”

Late Games Favour Bettors

Overall, Feazel said the earlier games were “solid” for the book. Even with the Eagles unable to hold on for the upset in the final seconds of the Jaguars game in London, there was healthy Jacksonville action on the spread throughout the week.

Result went bettors’ way more in the later games, he added, including a late field goal by the Denver Broncos in their 23-17 win over the Chargers that allowed them to cover. 

The Lions and the Over were one of the most popular combinations on the board, he said.

Drake Maye’s MVP Odds Surge

On the player prop front, several big-name players gave bettors plenty to cheer about, led by the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, who threw for 331 yards against Philadelphia, and Drake Maye of the Patriots, who delivered 374 passing yards and four touchdowns in the Raiders game.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seahawks continues to be a fan-favourite Anytime TD scorer and contributed his share, adding to his 95.5 receiving-yard mark and scoring a touchdown, Feazel added.

And speaking of Maye and the Patriots – they’re the biggest market movers after Week 5, with Patriots’ Super Bowl futures bumped down from +3000 to +2200. Maye was the biggest mover in the MVP market at Caesars, starting the day at +5000 and dropping to +2000 by the end of the Raiders game.

Bills-Rams Draws Heavy Action

The Rams (2-2) are 3.5-point favorites against the Bills (3-1) tonight (Oct. 12). The total across sportsbooks hovers around 54.5. Game time is 8:15 p.m. EDT.

“When two good teams play each other like San Francisco and Seattle, or tonight’s game, the public often takes the points,” said Scucci. “Tonight’s (Oct. 12) game has great action on both sides, and we probably need the game to go under the total more than we need either side.”