Robinhood Shifts World Cup Betting Volume to In-House ‘Rothera’ Exchange in Blow to Kalshi

• Robinhood announced it will direct some World Cup event contracts through Rothera, its own prediction market
• That could affect the contract volume the company sends to partner Kalshi
• Rothera is a partnership between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group

Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) is betting on its own infrastructure for the FIFA World Cup. The retail brokerage announced today (June 4) that it will internalize tournament prediction contracts through its new Rothera affiliate exchange, delivering a major liquidity blow to Kalshi.

Last November, Robinhood announced plans to partner with market maker Susquehanna International Group to develop an organic futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse to broaden its reach into prediction markets, which the financial services firm has described as one of its fastest-growing segments.

Rothera, which is licensed by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is the result of that effort and the World Cup could serve as a test for the upstart prediction market.

It’s also a major milestone for Robinhood’s prediction markets business, as we route event contracts to Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse independently managed through Robinhood’s joint venture with Susquehanna International Group,” according to a statement.

The brokerage firm adds that for the time being, it’s routing “a selection” of Major League Baseball and World Cup derivatives through Rothera with plans to “scale over time to include additional events.”

Robinhood’s World Cup Move Could Affect Kalshi

Though not discussed in the Robinhood statement, the company’s decision to shift some of its clients’ World Cup trading to Rothera could affect Kalshi — the prediction market with which the brokerage firm has long had a partnership.

When news of the Susquehanna relationship broke last November, it ignited speculation that Robinhood could eventually alter its partnership with Kalshi — one in which those two parties shared in the economics of event contracts volume the brokerage house directed to the prediction market operator.

“On June 1, we introduced a new pricing model where commission fees change based on the price of the contract and the size of the order, with lower fees at the extremes (contracts priced near $0.01 and $0.99) and never exceeding $0.01 per contract,” according to the company.

Robinhood Gold members can save up to 50% on those prices, potentially generating savings of up to 95% compared to the previous pricing structure.

World Cup Could Be Big Business for Robinhood

Potentially aided by the event taking place in North America, the quadrennial World Cup could be an ideal time for Robinhood to lean more on Rothera. It’s also likely to be big business for prediction markets and sportsbooks because sports betting handle (not prediction market volume) on the event could exceed $4 billion in the US.

“World Cup prediction markets allow customers to speculate on a variety of different game and tournament outcomes, turning their unique sports knowledge into a trading opportunity,” says the financial services firm.

Its World Cup derivatives will include event contracts on game winners, totals, group winners, teams advancing from group play and the Golden Boot winner, among many more.