Political Odds Predict President Donald Trump Loss, Six Democratic 2020 Hopefuls Now Out
Posted on: August 29, 2019, 11:46h.
Last updated on: August 29, 2019, 02:17h.
The political odds are heating up as the 2020 presidential election inches nearer and Democratic hopefuls continue to withdraw their candidacies.
This week, US Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-New York) announced she was ending her presidential bid. With her withdrawal, she becomes the sixth Democratic candidate to officially step off the White House campaign trail.
She joins former West Virginia lawmaker Richard Ojeda, US Rep. Eric Swalwell (California), Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, and US Rep. Seth Moulton (Massachusetts) as 2020 Democratic dropouts.
A sad day for the Democrats, Kirsten Gillibrand has dropped out of the Presidential Primary. I’m glad they never found out that she was the one I was really afraid of,” Trump tweeted in jest.
PredictIt bettors feel the withdrawals are finished for August, as the market asking “How many Democrats will drop out by August 31?” has 5-6 in a commanding position at 73 cents per share. The option 7-8 is next at 35 cents.
Trading statistics from PredictIt show that more than 2.1 million shares of Gillibrand’s 2020 chances of winning her party’s ticket were bought and sold during her campaign run. The most activity has been on former VP Joe Biden, with his trade volume at 4.56 million shares exchanged.
PredictIt bettors say South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is the next Democratic candidate – that at least has some marginal chance of winning the party ticket – to drop out.
Of the five frontrunners – Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts), Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vermont), Sen. Kamala Harris (California), and Buttigieg, the political odds have the 37-year-old as the favorite to pull out next. Noticeably absent from the market is businessman Andrew Yang, whose shares are trading higher than Harris and Buttigieg.
Regardless, Buttigieg is the frontrunner in the market asking “Which of these Democrats will drop out next?” His shares are trading at 57 cents, with Harris next at a distant 28 cents.
The seventh Democratic dropout could be anyone in a laundry list of names who seemingly have little-to-no path to securing the party’s nomination.
They include New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (one cent), billionaire hedge fund manager Tom Steyer (two cents), and former congressman Beto O’Rurke (two cents). The share prices are from the market asking “Who will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination?”
Warren remains the Democratic favorite at 33 cents, with Biden next at 27 cents. Sanders is at 15 cents, Yang 12 cents, Harris 11 cents, and Buttigieg seven cents.
Despite the chaos in the Democratic Party, PredictIt bettors believe the eventual nominee will evict President Donald Trump from the Oval Office.
“Which party will win the 2020 US presidential election?” has Democratic shares at 57 cents, and Republican shares at 46 cents. The market was essentially even at the start of the month.
Sportsbooks have it closer, with betting shop William Hill offering the Democrat candidate at 4/5, and Republican candidate at 10/11. That gives the Democrats a slight frontrunner status. Those bets can only be placed outside of the United States, which bans political betting at sports books. PredictIt has a carveout by positioining itself as a research arm for the Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, although the company itself is located in Washington, DC.
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