The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Odds and Predictions

As prediction markets go, the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner is arguably the most speculative. 

After all, while we know there are 287 candidates registered this year (including 208 individuals and 79 organizations), a 50-year secrecy rule prevents us from seeing the official shortlist. This was confirmed towards the end of March, and will feature a much smaller number of potential winners.

Due to the relative lack of information available to traders, price shifts are almost universally driven by sentiment, media narratives, and rampant speculation. 

Although this makes it incredibly difficult to pick a winner, it also creates short-term fluctuations and arbitrage opportunities. With the settlement date fast approaching, it’s time to consider selling profitable positions or commit to holding until this market resolves.

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Using the PRIO to Help Identify the Best Bets

This year saw the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) shortlist released historically early, resulting in volatile price movements during March. However, an updated list was issued on September 22nd by Acting PRIO Director Haakon Gjerløw, creating further volatility and market changes.

This coveted list provides an expert assessment of all potential laureates and is completely independent. It has also featured several recent award winners, including Narges Mohammadi in 2023 and Nihon Hidankyo in 2024.

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms has now emerged as the market favorite with a 14% probability of success. It was nominated for the second successive year in 2026, having provided providing critical, civilian-led assistance and humanitarian aid since an armed conflict erupted in 2023.

Market sentiment and global endorsements have helped to send this outcome’s “Yes” price soaring from just 2¢ on September 13th to 13.6¢. This price has arguably peaked, however. So, buying in now would represent a speculative trade that requires Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms to ultimately win the award.

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Which Nobel Peace Prize Nominees Offer the Best Value?

Between 1901 and 2025, individual nominees won the Nobel Peace Prize on 112 occasions. 

Organizations have prevailed on just 31 occasions. This highlights a significant bias towards individuals who best embody the fight against oppression, autocracy, and exile.

You should definitely factor this in when buying shares in the market. Based on all available information, here are a few of the most popular trades and their current standing:

“Yulia Navalnaya” | “Yes” at 7¢ | 7% Chance

Although the committee’s bias towards individuals can take many forms, recent awards have favored prominent human rights activists who take a principled stance against authoritarian regimes. This is particularly true for those who represent a living moral resistance to autocratic rule.

Venezuelan politician María Corina Machado, for example, won the award in 2025 for her brave opposition to several leaders (including Nicolás Maduro). Narges Mohammadi also triumphed in 2023, after her continued fight against the oppression of women in Iran.

This trend heavily favors Yulia Navalnaya in 2026. The widow of Alexei Navalny, she has continued to oppose Vladimir Putin’s leadership from exile, creating the ‘Platform of a Future Russia’ that looks to directly combat Kremlin censorship and propaganda. So, in addition to being a highly symbolic choice, Navalnaya remains incredibly active in the fight against a fascistic regime.

Navalnaya was also officially nominated for the award in 2025, emerging as one of the favorites on prediction markets alongside Machado. This means that she’s well known to the committee and clearly fits the profile of who they’re trying to reward.

“Yes” shares on Navalnaya winning have dipped recently from 11¢ to 7¢ (36.36%). However, she remains one of the main favorites on Polymarket. This price has largely performed steadily since the market opened and is considered to be one of the more likely winners.

This outcome also provides the best possible hedge against a potential organizational winner. However, there may now not be an opportunity to sell profitably before settlement. So, consider holding your existing shares and avoid buying now, too.

“International Court of Justice” | “Yes” at 6.3¢ | 6% Chance

Interestingly, Navalnaya was absent from the 2026 PRIO shortlist, but the International Court of Justice does make the cut. This organization has always sought to promote global peace, but it has recently become increasingly effective at holding those who breach international law to account.

The ICJ and the International Criminal Court secured the arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte last year, for example, for alleged crimes against humanity. 

Arrest warrants also remain outstanding for Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with their issuance drawing international acclaim and an official award endorsement from the Government of Slovenia.

On a fundamental level, the award’s founder, Alfred Nobel, was a strong proponent of international law and its role in preventing global conflict. So, this is a key criterion the committee uses when shortlisting contenders and announcing winners.

Then there’s the price. I previously recommended that you buy “Yes” shares in the ICJ winning for just 2¢ on July 30th. This price has risen to 6.3¢ at the time of writing, creating an ROI of 215% in less than two months.

Although it has the scope to increase further in the next two weeks, such gains are likely to be marginal. So consider selling now, especially if you have a risk-averse outlook or want to avoid potential liquidity traps.

“United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)” | “Yes” at 5.1¢ | 5% Chance

Humanitarian organizations have won the Nobel Peace Prize on 11 occasions, accounting for 35.4% of all institutional victors. This augurs well for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), which continues to provide a humanitarian lifeline in Gaza amid the ongoing Israeli–Palestinian conflict.

The committee has historically favored frontline organizations that provide aid and shelter, especially in war-torn regions. UNRWA is uniquely positioned to provide this support, thanks to its presence and infrastructure across the globe.

The UNRWA continues to work on the front lines despite being consistently underfunded. It also faces significant physical and military threats, as the opposition to human rights and international law grows globally. 

In this respect, a win for the UNRWA would also be symbolic and serve as a timely reminder of the principles that underpin the Nobel Peace Prize.

The UNRWA price has proved relatively volatile so far, ranging from 1.8¢ to a peak of 16.3¢. Following a recent slump and subsequent upturn, the price has settled at 5.1¢, creating a potential ROI of 183.33% if you bought in at the lowest benchmark. This represents a profitable exit window.

But is there value in buying now? Although the outcome may be slightly undervalued, the price may have peaked during the 81st UN General Assembly (UNGA), which began in early September. This will conclude on September 28th, with most high level addresses having been completed. If you do snap up “Yes” shares now, this is essentially a straight bet on the UNRWA winning the award in 2026.

The Last Word: Navigating a Highly Speculative Prediction Market

Attempting to forecast the winner in this market is incredibly difficult, due to the large number of nominees and the limited information available to traders.

Instead, you’ll need to start realizing short-term arbitrage opportunities and flipping your existing positions, prior to the market being settled on Friday, 9th October. Both the ICJ and UNRWA prices create the opportunity to sell now if you bought in early enough, while Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms saw their “Yes” share value increase by 580% in just 12 days.

If you’re looking to buy now, there’s little opportunity to identify underpriced outcomes and flip them. Lower liquidity is also an issue as the market approaches its resolution date, so most subsequent trades will be a bet on the eventual winner.

In this instance, buying “Yes” on Yulia Navalnaya at 7¢ may be appealing. She’s still the narrow second favorite on Polymarket, while individuals have won 78.3% of all Nobel Prizes awarded historically. She remains a key contender having also been nominated in 2025.

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