Nevada Caucus: Odds Strongly Favor Sen. Bernie Sanders, Russia Reportedly Again Meddling

Posted on: February 22, 2020, 12:01h. 

Last updated on: February 21, 2020, 05:58h.

The Nevada caucuses are held today at polling centers across the state, and political bettors are predicting that Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders easily wins the majority of the 23 Democratic delegates up for grabs.

Nevada caucus Bernie Sanders Trump
Bernie Sanders is expected to win today in Nevada. (Image: Timothy Clary/Getty)

On the political betting exchange PredictIt, Sanders’ shares of winning Nevada are at 89 cents. Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is a distant second at six cents, and former VP Joe Biden third at a nickel.

More than 4,700 shares of the Nevada Democratic caucus market have been bought and sold over the final three days leading up to today’s election. PredictIt allows bettors to invest as much as $850 million in each question market.

The Republican Party in Nevada voted last year to cancel its own caucus and hand its delegates to President Donald Trump. No state gaming agency in the US allows its sportsbooks to take action on the outcomes of political events. That’s not the case overseas.

William Hill has Sanders at 1/9 to win today in Nevada. Implied odds of 90 percent, a $100 bet nets a puny $11.11. Biden is at 10/1, and Buttigieg 12/1.

Russian Meddling

The Washington Post reported Friday rumblings of Russia once again seeking to interfere with the presidential election. The Sanders campaign said it was briefed by intelligence officials that the Kremlin is actively working to make sure the Vermont Democratic candidate wins his party’s nomination.

Specifics as to how Russia might be attempting to support Sanders were not disclosed. Russian President Vladimir Putin is said to want Trump reelected, and believes he will easily defeat Sanders in the general election in November.

Let’s be clear, the Russians want to undermine American democracy by dividing us up and, unlike the current president, I stand firmly against their efforts, and any other foreign power that wants to interfere in our election,” Sanders said in a statement.

Trump dismissed the intelligence report, saying at a rally in Las Vegas, “They’re trying to start a rumor, it’s disinformation … that Putin wants to make sure I get elected.”

“Another misinformation campaign is being launched by Democrats in Congress saying that Russia prefers me to any of the Do-Nothing Democrat candidates who still have been unable to, after two weeks, count their votes in Iowa,” the President tweeted.

Sanders vs. Trump

Following a difficult debate for billionaire Mike Bloomberg, Sanders increased his political betting lead in securing the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Sanders’ shares have surged from 42 cents to 57 cents over the past seven days.

Bloomberg tumbled from 28 cents to 19 cents. Biden and Buttigieg are tied for third at 11 cents.

Should the perennial presidential candidate finally win his party’s ticket, oddsmakers say Trump would be the favorite one-on-one. The incumbent is at -125, and Sanders +105. The line implies a winning chance of 55.56 percent for Trump, and 48.78 percent for Sanders.

PredictIt’s market asking which party wins the 2020 presidency has Republican shares at 57 cents, and Democratic shares at 45 cents.