Midterm Election Odds Favor Split Congress, President Biden’s Reelection Chances Improve
Posted on: October 10, 2022, 12:56h.
Last updated on: November 7, 2022, 10:47h.
The November 2022 midterm election is only four weeks out, and with voters solidifying who they will cast their votes for, political bettors are hoping to make an easy buck off the outcome.
The recent movement of the political odds has been in the Democratic Party’s favor. Republicans were once presumed a near-lock to take control of the Senate and House and put President Joe Biden in charge of a divided government. But bettors have eased the GOP’s front-runner status over the past few weeks by taking stakes in Democratic shares.
With just 29 days before the in-person polls open, betting exchange Smarkets says the Democrats have a narrow 54% chance of maintaining power in the Senate. In May, Smarkets bettors had Democrats at less than a 29% chance of retaining control of the upper congressional chamber.
Republicans are heavy favorites to assume control of the House of Representatives, which the Democrats currently control with 220 of the 435 seats.
The latest prices show that control of Congress is all to play for with just four weeks until the midterms. Having been clearly behind during the summer, the Democrats are now favorites to hold on to the Senate. The Republicans remain fairly strong market leaders to take the House, however,” Matthew Shaddick, head of political markets at Smarkets, told Casino.org.
Smarkets bettors have Republicans with an 82% chance of taking the House.
The power of Congress could come down to the three Senate races in Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. Democratic incumbents — specifically, Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Mark Kelly in Arizona, and Catherine Cortez Mastro in Nevada, have gained polling ground in recent weeks, causing some belief among political bettors that Democrats can maintain control of the Senate.
In Georgia, allegations that pro-life Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker impregnated a woman and paid for her abortion in 2009 have lengthened the former NFL great’s odds of ousting Warnock.
Smarkets bettors give Walker just a 34% chance of winning on November 10. In May, Walker’s implied odds of winning Georgia’s US Senate seat were around 65%.
Based on the latest odds for individual seats, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia look to be the three Senate races that could decide the outcome,” Shaddick said. “Herschel Walker’s recent troubles in the latter might just tip control in the Democrats’ favor.”
PredictIt, another political betting exchange, gives Democrats a 55% chance of holding the Senate. That is up about 15% from July, as the midterm momentum has seemed to have swung toward the Democrats.
In more promising news for Democrats, Biden’s odds of winning a second term have bettered in recent weeks.
Things are also looking up for Biden, with his odds of reelection climbing from 10% to 18%. A decent result for his party at the midterms might just be enough to lift him above Donald Trump in the betting for the White House in 2024,” Shaddick opined.
But for now, Trump remains the 2024 betting front-runner.
On PredictIt, the former president is tied with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) at implied odds of 25%. But Biden is close at 23%. On Smarkets, Trump is the favorite at 20%. Biden and DeSantis are next at 18%.
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