2024 Odds Present Attractive Long Shots, Says Political Betting Insider
Posted on: October 12, 2022, 09:01h.
Last updated on: October 12, 2022, 09:51h.
The 2024 odds currently suggest a three-horse presidential race between sitting President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). But Matthew Shaddick, head of political markets for Smarkets, says some current long shots could present considerable value in a little more than two years.
There are just 755 days remaining before Nov. 5, 2024, when American voters will decide who will lead the country for the next four years. Trump is the front-runner and, as of this week, his shares on Smarkets represent an implied 20% chance of winning a second four-year term in the White House.
Biden and DeSantis are tied at implied odds of about 18%. Current Vice President Kalama Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) round out the top five with implied odds of 5.4% and 4.8%, respectively.
But, Shaddick says political bettors might be smart to put a little money on someone who is presently a long shot. The Smarkets politics head has three potential candidates for consideration.
AOC Could be A-OK
Shaddick believes Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) could be a latecomer to the 2024 contest. The polarizing congresswoman, who’s a member of the so-called “Squad” of progressives, currently has odds of winning the presidency in two years of just 1%.
AOC is probably not the sort of candidate I’d normally bet on given that her name recognition probably makes her odds shorter than they should be,” Shaddick commented. “Still, she’s a powerful campaigner and could likely raise the money to mount a decent primary bid.”
Shaddick also finds newly minted Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) as a potential 2024 contender. Youngkin managed to put a Republican back in the governor’s office in Richmond in a state that has become progressively blue in recent years. Youngkin’s implied 2024 odds on Smarkets are also only 1%.
Finally, Shaddick believes 2024 bettors should consider Sen. Tim Scott (R-South Carolina). Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, is reportedly mulling a 2024 run. His Smarkets odds give him a less than 1% chance of winning on Nov. 5, 2024.
“CNN rates him third in their power rankings of GOP possible candidates behind Trump and DeSantis. Scott also seems to be very popular with some very big Republican donors. If anything happened to Trump, the consensus is that Scott would be one of the top-tier runners,” Shaddick opined.
White House Long Shots
Being a presidential long shot more than two years out certainly doesn’t disqualify a potential candidate from winning come Election Day. Two years out in 2014, Trump was still available as long as 100/1.
Biden in 2018 was also a long shot at 33/1 before winning the 2020 presidential election. President Barack Obama was as long as 50/1 when he began exploring a presidential campaign in late 2016.
“There’s plenty of recent history on your side if you want to take a chance on one of the outsiders,” Shaddick concluded.
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