Las Vegas Sands Stock ‘Attractive Story’, but Price Target Trimmed

Posted on: April 15, 2025, 11:45h. 

Last updated on: April 15, 2025, 12:36h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • Stock remains inexpensive, but needs Macau reacceleration
  • Deutsche Bank trims price target to $59 from $62

Amid tariff turbulence that’s increasingly strained the US/China trade relationship, shares of Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) have shed 36.31% year to date, confirming the stock is in need of near-term catalysts.

Sands China
The Venetian Macau. Deutsche Bank lowered its price target on Las Vegas Sands but remains bullish on the stock. (Image: YouTube)

In its favor, it’s inexpensive as highlighted by Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli in a note to clients on Tuesday. He reiterated a “buy” rating on the stock while paring his price target to $59 from $62. That reduction implies potential upside of 75.6% from the April 14 close. Getting there is another matter and could require a combination of factors to play out, including the thawing of US/China relations and a jolt to Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR).

We believe these items, when coupled with a consensus outlook that appears achievable, would set LVS up well to work as an inexpensive, beat and raise story, as we move through 2025,” observes Santarelli. “We find the current setup to be challenging, given the spectre of negative revisions at present.”

If and when cooler heads in Beijing and the White House prevail remains to be seen, but it’s evident the fractured US/China trade relationship is taking a toll on US-based Macau concessionaires. As percentages of earnings and revenue, Sands and rival Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) are among the most China-dependent US-based companies.

Speaking of Macau’s Impact on LVS Stock …

Las Vegas Sands is the parent company of Sands China, which controls five Macau integrated resorts, making it the largest operator there. That’s confirmation the operator is highly tethered to goings on in the casino enclave.

Fortunately, some channel checks suggest that even amid trade tensions, Macau gaming activity remains sturdy. The issue for Sands is how vibrant the mass and premium-mass segments — the operator’s core constituencies in Macau — can remain if the Chinese economy slows. Those cohorts are more sensitive to economic conditions than the VIPs Sands China is less reliant on.

Santarelli acknowledged macroeconomic issues have been “headwinds” for Las Vegas Sands stock, but so has lethargy in Macau GGR. He said the operator likely experienced slight market share contraction in the first three months of 2025.

“That said, management has repeatedly noted a 2Q25 completion of The Londoner, and, as such, we don’t believe investors anticipated market share gains in the 1Q25,” he notes. “For the 1Q25, we estimate LVS GGR in a range of $1.575 billion to $1.625 billion, with VIP hold potentially being lower than normal.”

Singapore Still Important to the LVS Stock Thesis

For now, Marina Bay Sands in Singapore is Sands’ lone property outside of Macau, and that’s positive for the operators because growth trends are sturdy in the city-state. Santarelli said the Singapore factor is “largely on autopilot for the investment community.”

He did, however, point out that Marina Bay Sands could face tough year-over-year comparisons in the first half of 2025, but the operator’s stock is still attractively valued.

“At current levels, and adjusted for modest construction in progress, Sands China shares are trading at 8.3x and 7.0x our 2025 and 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimates, respectively,” concludes the analyst. “As such, the implied valuation for the US listing, specifically Marina Bay Sands, sits at 8.3x 2025 adjusted EBITDA and a very compelling 6.6x 2026 adjusted EBITDA.”