Las Vegas Sands Stock a Long-Term Redemption Story

Posted on: March 11, 2025, 05:28h. 

Last updated on: March 12, 2025, 10:17h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • Valuation is low relative to stock’s history
  • Macau gaming equities could outperform later this year

Down 12.73% to start the year, Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), like many other gaming stocks, is ailing and in need of a spark. That could come in the form of investors embracing a now tempting valuation, and a rebound in mass-market play in Macau.

Macau debt
Sands China’s Venetian Macau. Valuation on Las Vegas Sands stock is depressed. (Image: Wall Street Journal)

In a new report following meetings with Sands executives at Stifel’s annual Jackson Hole Consumer Ski Summit, analyst Steven Wieczynski notes that spending per visit among mass-market patrons in Macau remains “depressed.” Still, Wieczynski added that Sands continues investing in its five casino resorts in the special administrative region (SAR), signaling confidence that spending within that demographic will eventually rebound.

Given the strong track record of this management, we believe optimism about Macau’s long-term prospects just can’t/shouldn’t be ignored. We still see a clear path to $60+/share over time as investors eventually grow more comfortable with the Macau landscape,” wrote the analyst.

Wieczynski reiterated a “buy” rating and $64 price target on Sands stock, which implies upside of 44.7% from Tuesday’s closing price.

Las Vegas Sands Stock, Other Macau Names Could Bounce Back

Macau casino stocks, including Las Vegas Sands, are in the midst of a multiyear run of disappointment — one that’s suppressed valuations while turning investor sentiment sour.

That situation has been exacerbated this year as President Trump has renewed bellicose trade rhetoric against China. Though it was likely just a symptom of Macau being a Chinese territory, the casino hub was recently included on the White House’s list of foreign adversaries.

The specter of a full-blown US/China trade war is weighing on spending trends among market bettors – Sands China’s core constituency. It’s possible those tensions will ease, potentially providing relief to Chinese consumer sentiment and Macau gaming stocks in the process.

“Across our coverage, Macau-centric names should be a group that eventually outperforms this year given the fact demand patterns should accelerate which could translate into positive estimate revisions,” adds Wieczynski.

Las Vegas Sands Stock is Inexpensive

Experts often say that valuation alone isn’t a reason to buy or sell a stock, but there’s no denying that at this point, Las Vegas Sands is inexpensive relative to historical norms. That could work in the stock’s favor as 2025 progresses if global market participants embrace value ideas with limited exposure to the US economy.

At current trading levels, LVS shares are trading around 8x our 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimate,” notes Wieczynski. “That is extremely cheap relative to LVS’ historical trading range which has been more in the 12x-14x forward EBITDA. We don’t want to sit here and try and make a relative valuation call in the face of a lot of uncertainty around the macro/political landscape in China. But even if we take a 25% haircut to that historical trading range given a lot of changes to the Macau landscape that would still tell you shares should be worth 10x-12x forward EBITDA.”

Adding to the valuation case, Wieczynski points out Marina Bay Sands is worth $36 to $40 a share to Sands’ stock price. That implies the shares are pricing almost no benefit from Macau because the stock closed at $44.82 on Tuesday.