Lakers Odds Shift Dramatically After Massive Doncic Trade

Posted on: February 3, 2025, 08:25h. 

Last updated on: February 5, 2025, 04:00h.

The sports world is still grappling with the seismic NBA trade between the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers over the weekend, with Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis as the centre pieces.

The betting world is grappling with it as well.

Kyrie Irving Luka Doncic Dallas Mavs Miss Play-In Tournament Western Conference Playoffs
Guard Luka Dončić was the key cog in a stunning trade over the weekend involving the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Lakers that also shook up the betting world. (Image: USA Today Sports)

Odds Shifting

The Lakers are one of the preeminent brands in all of sports and always a popular team among NBA bettors,” said Johnny Avello, Director of Sports Operations, DraftKings, based in Las Vegas. “Adding a superstar like Luka Doncic to the mix not only makes them more of a legitimate threat to win a title but drives even more energy and excitement around the team. We have already seen an uptick in action on the Lakers since the trade and expect this to continue throughout the season.”

The trade Saturday night shocked everyone – with Doncic now teaming up with LeBron James on the Lakers. The details – Doncic, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to L.A., Davis, Max Christie, Lakers’ 2029 first-round pick to the Mavs, Utah Jazz receives Jalen Hood-Schifino, a 2025 second-round pick via the L.A. Clippers, and the Mavericks’ 2025 second-round pick.

Tough to swallow if you’re a Mavs fans. Doncic is an all-time great player, and he’s only 25. And there’s been a lot of critique about the package the Mavericks got back for the superstar, with general managers around the NBA openly disdainful at how the process unfolded. If Doncic would have been put out there for bidding the return would have been massive, some say.

Trade Shocker

According to John Ewing at BetMGM, the Lakers went from +4000 pre trade to +1400 post trade to win the NBA championship, the Mavs going from +2000 to +3000. To win the Western Conference, the Lakers went from +2000 to +900, with the Mavs going from +1200 to +1400. Since the trade, 64% of bets and 57% of money are on the Lakers to win the title.

“The NBA is popular already, based on season highest volume trading for sportsbooks. I don’t think you’d see much change, perhaps a bit for Lakers’ games when Doncic gets back in lineup,” said Phill Gray, the former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction for more than 20 years, and an industry consultant. “For sure the Lakers pulled off a whopper, a generational star for the next 10 years to build around.

Mavs a Complete Team with Davis

“This season it makes [the Lakers] a little worse in my opinion. The Mavericks, when Davis returns, are a pretty complete team. Still not a serious contender now, losing Doncic’s scoring. I don’t think the Lakers are either. They have no real starting center unless they get one before Thursday [NBA trading deadline]. Futures odds have only fluctuated briefly. Lakers at +1500 right now. I’d lay that no problem.”

The Lakers are 28-18, sixth in the Western Conference, with the Mavs 26-24, sitting in ninth.

We are laying bets on the Lakers at 20/1 where we were 45/1 before the trade happened,” said Glen Hyslop, a trader with BetVictor. “Some firms I believe have gone too short with the Lakers, at 12/1 in one place and the reversal for Dallas. They have drifted but were happy to take on the Lakers as the team does not look balanced. They had Lebron and AD with Austin Reaves at point guard. When Doncic returns from injury he would replace Reaves as the starting PG. Then where does Reaves fit in? Do they move him to shooting guard?

James Finds a New Running Mate

“Lakers do not look like a well-balanced team and seem to be hoping the pairing of Lebron and Doncic will roll over teams in the short term, which time will only tell.

“There is a lot of negative press around the Mavericks trading Doncic but I think when people start looking at their starting five – Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington, Davis, Daniel Gafford – in my personal opinion it looks like a much more solid starting five than the Lakers have at present.

“You could also argue AD is having a better season than Luca, with AD averaging 25.7 points per game and 11.9 rebounds.”