Kilmar Abrego Garcia Odds of Being Released From El Salvador Prison Grim

Posted on: April 16, 2025, 01:49h. 

Last updated on: April 16, 2025, 02:07h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.
  • Kilmar Abrego Garcia remains in a prison in El Salvador
  • The Trump administration concedes he was wrongly deported
  • Trump is doing little to ensure Garcia’s return

The odds of Kilmar Abrego Garcia being released from the El Salvadorian prison he was mistakenly deported to by the United States government aren’t good. That’s according to bettors wagering money on his fate.

Kilmar Abrego Garcia odds return El Salvador
A protester who wants Kilmar Abrego Garcia returned from El Salvador, where he was mistakenly deported, holds a sign on April 5, 2025, in Washington, DC. Bettors give Garcia’s odds of return a slim chance. (Image: Shutterstock)

Garcia is a citizen of El Salvador who illegally immigrated to the United States in 2011 at the age of 16 to avoid gang threats made against him and his family. Over the past 14 years, Garcia worked in construction, married, raised three children with disabilities, and most recently lived in Maryland.

The US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, under the Trump administration, designated the MS-13 gang in El Salvador a terrorist organization. Local police in Maryland accused Garcia of being an MS-13 gangster in 2019, though he was never charged with a crime.

The accusation came after Garcia applied for asylum after marrying a US citizen. Though his asylum was denied, a federal immigration judge granted him “withholding of removal” status, preventing his deportation to El Salvador.

The judge in that case said Garcia was “credible” in his claims that he’d face gang threats should he return to his native country. Garcia and other members of his family claimed to flee El Salvador after their family-run pupusa business refused to adhere to the MS-13 gang’s extortion demands.

Odds of Garcia’s Return Long

No legitimate, legal sportsbook in the US is taking bets on Garcia’s fate. But controversial prediction market wagering exchanges are.

Kalshi, one such leading peer-to-peer wagering exchange, is refraining from offering bets to adhere to rules issued by the US government agency that regulates it. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requires that such markets avoid event contracts that “reference terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under any state or federal law.” The CFTC explains that the statute bans all “markets contrary to the public interest.”

Polymarket, which isn’t regulated by the CFTC, but instead functions primarily in cryptocurrency, is taking bets on the Garcia situation. The controversial betting exchange has two markets regarding Garcia.

Polymarket bettors give Garcia just an 8% chance of being returned to the US by the end of April. They think he has a 29% chance of being released back to the states by the end of July.

Trump Administration Defies Orders

The US Supreme Court and a lower federal court have both instructed the Trump administration to act quickly to arrange Garcia’s return to Maryland.

Cancel vacations, cancel other appointments,” US District Judge Paula Xinis told ICE and relevant federal agencies.  

The president, however, remains defiant. During a meeting this week in the Oval Office with El Salvador President Nayib Bukele, Trump said it’s up to Bukele to decide if Garcia is returned to the US.

“The question is preposterous: how can I smuggle a terrorist into the United States?” Bukele followed.

On Wednesday, the United States’ top Justice official and legal advisor to the president, Attorney General Pam Bondi, said Garcia will remain in El Salvador.

“He is not coming back to our country,” Bondi declared. “That’s the end of the story.”