Kalshi Bettors Backing Socialist Mamdani Over Cuomo in NYC Mayoral Contest

• New Yorkers heading to polls today to decide city’s next mayor
• Rapid shift on Kalshi shows bettors believe Mamdani will win Democratic nomination over former Gov. Cuomo

In the first big political test for the accuracy of prediction markets since the 2024 presidential election, New Yorkers are voting today in primaries that will decide the city’s mayoral candidates with Kalshi users rapidly altering sentiment in recent days.

The Democratic primary, which will essentially decide the next mayor in the ultra-blue city, has rapidly turned in Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani‘s favor in recent days indicating former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s political rebirth could be on the brink. As the Kalshi chart below confirms, support for Cuomo among the platform’s users has recently tumbled while Mamdani has built significant momentum.

At this writing, Mamdani hold a 54% to 47% lead over Cuomo, according to Kalshi data. His ascent on the prediction market has been staggering. Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour told The New York Post the assemblyman was garnering just 18% support as recently as last Friday and less than 25% over the weekend.

Kalshi stays above the partisan political fray and isn’t overtly endorsing Cuomo or Mamdani. However, the platform has become a go-to destination for bettors and investors looking to place wagers on political races — something regulated sportsbooks cannot offer in this country. Kalshi rose to prominence leading up to and following the 2024 presidential election when Donald Trump Jr. said he used Kalshi to know that his father “won hours ahead of the fake news media.” Trump Jr. is now a Kalshi advisor.

Kalshi Predictive Power Could Be Tested

While Kalshi users were on the right side of the 2024 presidential race, the New York City mayoral contest could represent a different test for the futures market due to some variables that are arguably flying under the radar.

Second, the New York mayoral primary uses ranked-choice voting, which is not used in federal elections. Under that system, New Yorkers can select up to five candidates on their ballots and with 11 candidates vying for the right to call Gracie Mansion home, the odds of one emerging with the 50% needed to declare outright victory are slim. With ranked-choice voting, it’s likely that multiple tabulation rounds are needed to declare a winner and some Kalshi bettors are comfortable with that wager.

NYC Mayor Race Features Flawed Candidates

Neither Cuomo nor Mamdani are perfect. The former governor was forced to resign amid allegations of sexual misconduct and he’s been criticized for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic in New York. Some critics assert the then governor’s decision to move COVID-19 patients into nursing homes resulted in so many deaths that it cost New York a congressional seat in the 2020 census.

Cuomo has some ties to the gaming industry, recently earning an endorsement from Barry Diller whose IAC/InterActiveCorp (NASDAQ: IAC) is the biggest shareholder of MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM). Cuomo also signed the legislation that legalized online sports wagering in the Empire State.

Mamdani, a two-term assemblyman, is described as a socialist and is pitching ultra-progressive ideas such as city-run grocery stores and rent control, among others. His views are believed to be frightening to some New York business leaders that worry Mamdani would govern even further to the left of some of the most progressive big city mayors in the US.