Jason La Canfora: My Futures Bets Ahead of the NFL Season

The palate of NFL futures that are readily available today can be overwhelming.

The sportsbooks are doing quite well with them, in a league where, in general, six new teams make the playoffs every year, and the offerings only continue to grow.

There’s a lot to sort through, so we are explaining our favorite team plays here and we’ll address individual player props down the road. 

In general, we aren’t making any bet that we can’t cash for six months unless we are able to double our money. That’s the bottom line.

Parlaying a few bets at lesser odds, when you can, to get that degree of return is something that we do. 

In terms of straight bets, if I am giving someone my money in August knowing I am not getting anything back until January, then the opportunity cost of what I can’t do with that money in the interim is factoring into my equation.

I tend to pare things down gradually through the summer and rank bets that I like as I do my research. 

When I identify teams I believe are mispriced I seek to find alternate markets or less traditional options to fade them or back them. These are some of my favorites:

Patriots To Miss The Playoffs (+183): 

Last year I faded the Commanders after a one-year breakthrough and it worked out quite well. The year before, the Texans were a team that I didn’t fancy as much after C.J. Stroud’s breakthrough rookie year. New England is that team this year.

Their second-best player being a “hold in” all offseason (corner Christian Gonzalez) ain’t great. Their coach’s sex scandal ain’t great. Their roster ain’t great, lacking blue chip pass rushers and pass protectors. 

The advance scouts and GMs I have probed about New England think they are in trouble. The schedule is infinitely more difficult than a year ago. The AFC is loaded.

Bears Over 11.5 Wins (+310): 

This could be the best regular-season team in the NFL. 

I put some money on Chicago to lead the league in wins at 22-1, but there is a lot that doesn’t have to do with the Bears in that bet. 

They have the seventh-easiest schedule in the NFL per expert analyst Warren Sharp’s research. Caleb Williams could win an MVP (don’t get caught up in completion percentage with a kid ripping it downfield like this).

The run game will be elite. The offensive line is better. Ben Johnson is a top five head coach in this league. 

I believe they will go 4-2 at least in the division, which sets us up well here. The defense may have issues, but they will also make a trade at the deadline if need be.

Bengals To Win Division (+200): 

I headed to the prediction markets to get my 2-1 minimum return here, as the traditional markets are already losing value. 

Every other team in the AFC North is in a coaching reboot. Their defense is going to be legit. It actually started making strides from a coverage and tackling point last year.

Joe Burrow is on a mission, and the first seven games are 1pm kickoffs – when he kicks ass – and they get Baltimore coming to them on short rest in Week 17, which might settle this thing. I also loved their offseason moves.

49ers Under 8.5 Wins (+200): 

Nothing is going right for them, from the GM to the head coach to their older players beat up again (George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey). 

I don’t buy Nick Bosa and Trent Williams getting through the season. Too many evaluators I really trust think Brock Purdy is just not that good and as the personnel around him ages out; that’s a problem.

They lack speed and twitch on either side of the ball. Far too many of their ‘too-cute’ drafts haven’t panned out. 

Add on to that, they’re playing in the toughest division in football. They don’t impress me nearly enough in the trenches.

Bears to Win More Games Than 49ers (+155): 

If I am right about these other markets, I would be a fool not to be looking to pair a team I believe is undervalued with one that seems most inflated to me.

Bills, Patriots, Dolphins, Jets – Exact Finish (+475): 

We believe that New England could fall off, but I still see 8-9 wins. 

Buffalo in a new stadium with a new coach – but one who already had the offense humming, gets our nod. People we respect in the league love Buffalo’s defensive coordinator hire, too.

Miami and the Jets both stink, but we think Aaron Glenn could get fired in-season and the rumors and turmoil won’t be fun. 

Miami has a real head coach and a real GM, and they have a far better QB than the Jets. New York has the better defense but we are detecting a little too much hype priced into Jets markets.

Buccaneers To Win Division (+223): 

Another one where the prediction markets are the best option. 

Todd Bowles is a better coach than he gets credit for and they were headed to another division title in a soft NFC South before Baker Mayfield’s body gave out. 

Baker is pissed off about his contract and on a mission, while extending Vita Vea is big for the defense.

Carolina’s preseason injuries are crushing. Tyler Shough is being given way too much credit for some nice games against horrible opponents. 

Color us skeptical, we think Atlanta stinks. This division is far too close and this team has the best pedigree of any of them.