Israel Charges Two Over Insider Polymarket Bets on Iran Conflict

• Israeli reservist and civilian charged over insider Polymarket bets
  
• Allegedly used classified military intelligence during Iran conflict
  
• Case under gag order; no operational harm reported

Israeli authorities have charged two people with serious security offenses after they allegedly placed insider bets on “the occurrence of military operations” on the Polymarket prediction platform.

The bets were based on classified information which one of the individuals was “exposed to by virtue of their position in the army,” according to a statement released Thursday by the Israeli government. One of the suspects is an army reservist, officials said.

Rising Lion

The names of the individuals and the nature of the bets were not disclosed. However, Israel’s public broadcaster Kan News reported last month that the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) and internal security agency Shin Bet were investigating an anonymous Polymarket user.

The account “ricosuave666” placed numerous bets on event contracts surrounding Operation Rising Lion, Israel’s 2025 military campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear capabilities that triggered days of retaliatory missile fire.

“The defense establishment stressed that placing such bets based on secret and classified information poses a genuine threat to IDF operations and to national security,” government officials said in the statement.

Authorities viewed “the acts attributed to the defendants with utmost severity and will act decisively to thwart and bring to justice anyone involved in the unlawful use of classified information,” it continued, adding that “no operational harm was caused.”

Further details of the case were withheld from publication under a court-imposed gag order.

If the allegations are proven, it would be the first known case of individuals attempting to profit from an armed conflict by placing bets using military secrets.

Wisdom of Crowds

Prediction markets like Polymarket say they are forecasting tools that efficiently aggregate information using the “wisdom of crowds” theory – that when traders with different knowledge sets act on financial incentives, prices converge toward the true probability of an event. Critics argue they monetize war and disasters.

Because the bulk of the bets were placed just hours before President Donald Trump announced the US raid that captured Maduro, many observers questioned whether the trader had access to non-public information.

It isn’t clear whether the incident prompted a formal criminal investigation.