Syracuse Over/Under Season Win Total Drawing Action at FanDuel Sportsbook
Posted on: August 6, 2019, 12:58h.
Last updated on: August 6, 2019, 01:30h.
FanDuel Sportsbook revealed on Monday some insights into the early college football action it’s taken so far, and one particular opportunity stood out among the rest.
According to Kevin Hennessy, FanDuel’s director of publicity, one of the book’s most popular bets has been the over/under on Syracuse’s season win total. Given that the university brands itself as “New York’s College Team” and the sportsbook is open in neighboring New Jersey and Pennsylvania, the action makes sense. (NOTE: FanDuel also has a New York sportsbook as well at Tioga Downs, but state gaming regulations prohibit any bets on in-state college teams.)
However, it may not just be fans of the Orange making their way across state lines to place bets. The action may very well include some sharp-eyed bettors who saw an undervalued team. When FanDuel set the line in late June, it listed the win total at just five.
By comparison, when Caesars Sportsbook released its lines a week later, oddsmakers there listed the over/under at 7.5 wins. When CircaSports listed theirs on June 23, it listed the Orange at eight wins.
Last week, coaches ranked Syracuse No. 22 in their first Top 25 poll of the season.
The Orange earned the coaches’ votes because they have 13 starters coming back from a team that went 10-3. It was their first winning season since 2013, and their first 10-win campaign since 2001. In addition, they took eventual national champion and Atlantic Coast Conference foe Clemson down to the wire on the road last year. The Orange held a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter, only to see the Tigers rally to win 27-23 on a last-minute touchdown.
Since FanDuel unveiled the line, it has shot up to 7.5, with the over offering -150 odds. That means a $150 bet would win $100. The under is available at +125.
John Cassillo, the managing editor for Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician, the Syracuse sports web page on SBNation.com, said FanDuel was just offering people “free money” with the low projection, especially since several experts considered them a top 25 team heading into the season.
(E)ven if they slip from that lofty potential, they’re still a VERY likely bowl squad — meaning six wins at the very least are on the table,” Cassillo wrote. “Anyone betting the under on the initial line is more than just a non-believer. They’re pretty much trolling SU, themselves and their wallet.”
Cassillo wasn’t alone in the line of thinking. Barrett Sallee, a college football writer for CBSSports.com, said when he saw the initial line he needed to look at it 10 times to confirm what he saw.
Syracuse, he said, “returns four of their top five receivers and a quarterback in Tommy DeVito who is one of the most highly-touted prospects to sign with the Orange in recent history. Dino Babers is one of the most under-appreciated coaches in the country, and this win total proves it.”
Still Too Low?
Even the 7.5-win line might be a bit low. At ESPN.com, the site lists the Orange’s schedule with a projected win probability rating for each game. In nine of the 12 games, the Orange have at least a 52.9 percent chance of winning that game. Five games feature a probability rating better than 68.1 percent.
In the ACC preseason media poll, voters picked the Orange to finish second behind Clemson in the seven-team ACC Atlantic Division. This year, the Tigers must travel to the Carrier Dome to play Syracuse, and if the Orange can pull out a win on Sept. 14, they would be in the driver’s seat for the division title.
Syracuse starts its season on Aug. 31 when it travels to Liberty. FanDuel has the Orange as a -17.5-point favorite. On the straight-up moneyline, they are -900, compared to +610 for the Flames.
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