Citizens: DraftKings’ Prediction Market Venture Could Fuel $10B–$14B in Enterprise Value

• Analyst sees massive prediction market opportunity for DraftKings
• Estimates event contracts could generate as much as $1.3 billion in revenue for the company by 2030, depending on market share
• A 30% share of the market could add up to $14 billion in enterprise value

While early activity on DraftKings’ (NASDAQ: DKNG) fledgling prediction market platform is perking up, analysts believe long-term investors could see massive rewards as the operator scales its presence in the event contracts market.

In a new report to clients, Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender estimates that if DraftKings commands 20% share of the prediction market industry by 2030, it could generate $907 million in revenue from yes/no derivatives.

If the operator’s market share reaches 30% by that year, the revenue opportunity could be as high as $1.3 billion, according to the analyst. The enterprise value (EV) implications are substantial.

Applying Kalshi’s implied revenue multiple suggests a 20% market share could be worth ~$10 billion of EV for DraftKings and ~$14bn at a 30% share, similar to the company’s current size. In other words, we do not believe the market is appropriately valuing the opportunity,” observes Bender.

Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market in the U.S., was recently valued at $22 billion in private markets and is pacing toward $2 billion in annual revenue.

Why DraftKings Prediction Market Opportunity Is Huge

DraftKings Predictions launched last December and while volume on the platform is surging, it’s currently not a big a moneymaker for the company because much of the order flow is routed through CME and Crypto.com, not the Railbird Exchange DraftKings acquired to serve as a part of the foundation of its prediction market efforts.

“By the NFL season, we expect DraftKings could begin routing a significant amount of volume through its exchange, away from CME and Crypto.com, while simultaneously making markets in a more meaningful way on both its own exchange and third-party platforms,” notes Bender.

Looking further out, the take rate for DraftKings Predictions could swell to between 5.5% and 6%, up significantly from its current level of 2% of consumer volume. Crucially, that forecast excludes potential upside from market-making activities, which Citizens analyst Jordan Bender estimates could generate up to $200 million in EBITDA by 2030.

DraftKings Predictions Driving Customer Acquisition

With the help of the World Cup, DraftKings Predictions is serving as an important customer acquisition tool for the operator.

“DraftKings app downloads are up 249% month-to-date as the company begins acquiring customers through a sports offering that is now live across the U.S.,” writes Bender. “We believe the company is targeting 2 million to 3 million new customers in 2026 based on current customer acquisition costs and marketing spending.”

DraftKings management consistently noted its 2026 prediction market investments are unlikely to boost earnings this year, but Bender says “contribution profit” over the next seven months could add $28 million to the company’s 2026 guidance.