Citizens: DraftKings Predictions Could Add $10B-$14B in Enterprise Value
Posted on: June 22, 2026, 11:27h.
Last updated on: June 22, 2026, 11:27h.
- Analyst sees massive prediction market opportunity for DraftKings
- Estimates event contracts could generate as much as $1.3 billion in revenue for the company by 2030, depending on market share
- A 30% share of the market could add up to $14 billion in enterprise value
Data indicate that activity on DraftKings Predictions — the gaming company’s prediction market platform — is perking up, but long-term investors could be rewarded by DraftKings’ (NASDAQ: DKNG) efforts in the event contracts space.
In a new report to clients, Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender estimates that if DraftKings commands 20% share of the prediction market industry by 2030, it could generate $907 million in revenue from yes/no derivatives. If the operator’s market share reaches 30% by that year, the revenue opportunity could be as high as $1.3 billion, according to the analyst. The enterprise value (EV) implications are substantial.
Applying Kalshi’s implied revenue multiple suggests a 20% market share could be worth ~$10 billion of EV for DraftKings and ~$14bn at a 30% share, similar to the company’s current size. In other words, we do not believe the market is appropriately valuing the opportunity,” observes Bender.
Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market in the U.S., was recently valued at $22 billion in private markets and is pacing toward $2 billion in annual revenue.
Why DraftKings Prediction Market Opportunity Is Huge
DraftKings Predictions launched last December and while volume on the platform is surging, it’s currently not a big a moneymaker for the company because much of the order flow is routed through CME and Crypto.com, not the Railbird Exchange DraftKings acquired to serve as a part of the foundation of its prediction market efforts.
As a result, DraftKings is currently deriving little benefit from market-making activity and reported consumer volume resulted in just $2 million of gross revenue last month despite surging turnover on DraftKings Predictions, according to Bender. The economics of DraftKings Predictions are expected to change in the operator’s favors in the months ahead.
“By the NFL season, we expect DraftKings could begin routing a significant amount of volume through its exchange, away from CME and Crypto.com, while simultaneously making markets in a more meaningful way on both its own exchange and third-party platforms,” notes Bender.
Looking further out, DraftKings Predictions’ take rate could swell to 5.5% to 6% from the current level of 2% of consumer volume moving through the app and that doesn’t include potential economic benefits from market-making, which Bender estimates could generate as much as $200 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in 2030.
DraftKings Predictions Driving Customer Acquisition
With the help of the World Cup, DraftKings Predictions is serving as an important customer acquisition tool for the operator.
“DraftKings app downloads are up 249% month-to-date as the company begins acquiring customers through a sports offering that is now live across the U.S.,” writes Bender. “We believe the company is targeting 2 million to 3 million new customers in 2026 based on current customer acquisition costs and marketing spending.”
DraftKings management consistently noted its 2026 prediction market investments are unlikely to boost earnings this year, but Bender says “contribution profit” over the next seven months could add $28 million to the company’s 2026 guidance.
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