Churchill Downs Stock Slips on Mixed Kentucky Derby Handle Report

Posted on: May 4, 2026, 11:42h. 

Last updated on: May 4, 2026, 11:42h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • All-sources Derby Week handle set a new record
  • But handle for the Derby Day slate declined
  • So did handle for the Run for the Rose itself

Churchill Downs (NASDAQ: CHDN) stock tumbled Monday following a mixed Kentucky Derby handle report. Golden Tempo won the first leg of the Triple Crown, becoming the first hose trained by a woman to accomplish that feat.

Kentucky sports betting age
Churchill Downs stock declined today following a disappointing Kentucky Derby handle report. (Image: Shutterstock)

Historical footnotes aside, shares of the gaming company were off 7.17% in midday trading due to a tepid handle report. Put simply, the data for the entirety of Derby Week was excellent, but Derby Day and the Kentucky Derby itself were different stories.

All-sources handle for Derby Week rose to a new record of $487 million, up $13 million or 3% from the prior record set in 2025,” according to a statement issued by Churchill Downs. “Wagering from all sources on the Kentucky Derby Day program was $340 million compared to last year’s record of $349 million. All-sources wagering on the Kentucky Derby race was $225 million, compared to last year’s record of $234 million.”

Handle on TwinSpires, the official betting partner of the Kentucky Derby, was $129 million for Derby week, up $7 million, or 6%, year-over-year. TwinSpires’ Derby Day handle was up 1%, but its handle for the race itself was flat compared with 2025.

Monday’s weakness in the stock may be a symptom of investors expecting more out of the Derby Day slate and the race itself because over the past several years, those events have broken records in terms of handle.

Some Good News for Churchill Downs Stock

The focus on Derby Day handle my prove myopic because Chuchill Downs noted adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for Derby Week 2026 set a new record.

The gaming company said Derby Week adjusted EBTIDA grew $15 million to $18 million on a year-over-year basis. Historically, Derby Week accounted for 25% to 30% of the operator’s full-year EBITDA, but by some estimates, that percentage has decline to around 15% as Churchill Downs has become more diversified with the help of historical horse racing venues and regional casinos.

Another bright spot was ticket demand for the Derby, which was likely solid. That’s important because those tickets aren’t cheap and they account for a significant percentage of overall Derby Week revenue.

“We believe ticket pricing and demand were decent, based on commentary from the company’s April 23 earnings call,” notes Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender. “Median ticket prices, excluding general admission and suites, ended at ~$2.1k, with the premium tickets serving as the largest revenue contributor for the day; tickets account for ~60% of Derby week revenue.”

Favorable History

Long-term investors should note the 2027 edition of the Derby won’t feature new growth projects, but the Victory Run Project is slated to ready for 2028 Derby Week. Churchill Downs is spending $280 million to $300 million to replace aging box seats and refresh dining options. Over the near-term, history may be on the side of Churchill Downs shares.

“Historically, median stock performance in the 60 days following the Kentucky Derby is +4% (2011–2025), compared to +1% for the Russell 3000 over the same period,” adds Bender.