Churchill Downs Sees Derby EBITDA Rising By as Much as $20 Million
Posted on: April 23, 2026, 01:58h.
Last updated on: April 23, 2026, 01:58h.
- Gaming company forecasts year-over-year Kentucky Derby EBITDA increase of $15 million to $20 million
- CEO Carstanjen says Derby Week 2026 expected to outpace last two years
- CFO Dall confident in growth forecast
Shares of Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ: CHDN) rallied Thursday after the gaming company delivered record-breaking first-quarter revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). The upcoming Kentucky Derby could be another catalyst for the resurgent stock.
Thursday’s pop fans the flames of a bounce that’s carried the stock higher by 12% over the past month and comes at an opportune time with Kentucky Derby Week commencing on Saturday. Over the past several years, Derby Week wagering, including on the Run for the Roses, broke records with EBITDA following a similar trajectory. On a conference call with analysts earlier today, Churchill Downs CFO Marcia Dall reiterated a previously projection on this year’s Derby EBITDA growth.
We are very confident in our $15 million to $20 million of Derby growth over last year’s number,” she said on the call. “That will be a very significant increase even over Derby 150 (the 2024 running of the race).”
This year’s broader Derby Week slate could get a boost from because the Kentucky Oaks, the premier race for three-year-old fillies, will be broadcast the day before the Derby on NBC and Peacock..
Kentucky Derby Growth in Its Early Innings
The Kentucky Derby isn’t just the first leg of the Triple Crown. It’s the longest-running continuous sporting event in American history and one that bettors and investors pay attention.
Last year, Churchill Downs announced significant spending on new amenities at its eponymous Kentucky track, including enhancements to the Conservatory and the Skye Terrace. Expenditures of $280 million to $300 million on the Victory Run project could be additive this year in terms of creating new, temporary seating for Derby Week events.
That project is slated to be completed prior to the 2028 Derby, confirming Churchill Downs is prioritizing prudent spending to position its biggest event as a long-term driver of top and bottom line growth.
“We continue to invest in enhancing the Derby experience. And for this year’s event, we are unveiling several exciting upgrades,” said CEO Bill Carstanjen on the call. “We have completed renovations of The Mansion, one of the most exclusive hospitality areas, offering exceptional views of the track and finish line. Our Finish Line Suites have also been significantly upgraded, creating a more integrated high-energy hospitality experience with improved flow and premium amenities. These are our most exclusive suites, and we are very excited to show our customers a reimagined and unique setting.”
Preakness Talk
On Tuesday, Churchill Downs announced an $85 million acquisition of the intellectual property (IP) rights tied to the Preakness Stakes and related races, giving the buyer control of the first two legs of the Triple Crown.
The deal is in its formative stages and hasn’t been finalized. For now it looks additive from a fee perspective for Churchill Downs, but it could grow into something more substantial over the long-term.
“We think CHDN will receive approximately ~$6 million annually based on ~$3 million for its IP and 2% of handle wagered. We assume that this is a longer term play with CHDN potentially taking over operations at some point,” said Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas in a note to clients.
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