Kentucky Derby Betting Sets Record, EBITDA Slightly Off 2024 Pace

Posted on: May 5, 2025, 02:45h. 

Last updated on: May 5, 2025, 10:16h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • Churchill Downs said all-sources Kentucky Derby betting set another record
  • TwinSpires’ handle also notched all-time highs
  • Sovereignty won the 151st edition of the “run for the roses”

Despite poor weather and what some analysts are describing as a modest dip in ticket sales due to US tariff volatility, Churchill Downs (NASDAQ: CHDN) announced another year of record wagering on the Kentucky Derby.

Churchill Downs
Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty. Churchill Downs said betting for the race set another record. (Image: Kentucky Derby)

All-sources betting on Saturday’s race was $234.4 million, topping the prior record of $210.7 million set last year. The gaming company added that the overall Kentucky Derby Day program posted all-sources betting $349 million, also a record and well ahead of the $320.5 million notched in 2024. For Derby Week at large, all-sources handle came in at $473.9 million, easily besting the previous all-time high of $446.6 million set last year. The operator’s TwinSpires unit set new records, too.

TwinSpires, the official betting partner of the Kentucky Derby, handled a new record of $108.0 million in wagering on Churchill Downs races for the Kentucky Derby Day program, compared to last year’s record of $92.1 million, including all settled future wagers and affiliate wagering. TwinSpires’ handle on the Kentucky Derby race was a new record of $73.0 million, beating last year’s record of $60.9 million, including all settled future wagers and affiliate wagering,” according to a statement.

Churchill Downs added that adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the Derby will be one of the two best results in the operator’s history, but will also be $2 million to $4 million below the record pace set last year.

Derby Earnings May Have Been Pinched by Macro Factors

Shares of Churchill Downs are down 16.60% over the past month, a period including the operator’s first-quarter earnings report, which sparked a massive sell-off.

That update included commentary from the company pausing capital spending at its eponymous Kentucky track, citing tariff risk. In February, the operator told investors it could spend as much as $920 million through 2028 on improving the Conservatory, the infield, and the Skye with up to $400 million of those expenditures previously expected to take place this year.

Those plans are now on hold amid uncertainty in the US economy and it appears that lack of clarity may have been on the minds of some prospective Derby attendees.

“The primary reason for the decline in earnings is that ticket sales over the final 30 days up to the event were lower than expected,” noted Jefferies analyst David Katz in a note out Sunday. “The reasons for the missed expectations included the closer-in sales of some newer seating areas and likely poor weather on Derby weekend.”

Derby Still Long-Term Growth Driver for Churchill Downs

There’s no shortage of conjecture regarding how tariffs could affect the gaming industry and some evidence that operators of land-based gaming venues are suffering as a result of the Trump Administration’s efforts to apply levies against US trading partners.

Year-to-date price action across gaming equities, including Churchill Downs, reflects investor apprehension, but over the long term, the Derby remains an integral part of the Churchill investment thesis and it’s likely the operator isn’t permanently backing off spending plans that could bolster growth.

“Current management commentary is that the growth trajectory remains long and positive and capital investment should continue,” adds Katz. “Our thesis on the Derby has been that the continued investment in more seating and revenue-generating amenities should have a long tail, which we believe is still valid.”