Ballon d’Or Organizers Plan Police Complaint Over Suspicious $200K Betting Profits

Organizers of soccer’s Ballon d’Or awards are preparing a criminal complaint after a cluster of anonymous prediction-market accounts reportedly made nearly $200,000 by betting on the precise finishing order of the world’s top players.

Groupe Amaury, the owner of France Football, which presents the prestigious annual Ballon d’Or awards to the world’s best soccer players, said Saturday (Oct. 31) it was investigating whether confidential voting results had leaked ahead of the Oct. 26 ceremony in London.

The inquiry follows reporting by French financial news outlet Upside, which identified 12 Polymarket accounts that collectively wagered around $264,000 on the top five.

Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane became the first Englishman to win the men’s Ballon d’Or in 25 years, with France’s Kylian Mbappé, Spain’s Lamine Yamal and Rodri, and Argentina’s Lionel Messi rounding out the top five.

Groupe Amaury said in a statement to French newspaper Le Parisien that it took allegations of leaked results and potentially fraudulent wagers seriously. The group said investigations were underway to establish the facts and determine whether anyone bore responsibility. French police have also been informed, according to The Guardian.

Unusual Betting Patterns

Upside first flagged the suspicious activity on Oct. 23, three days before the winners were revealed. The accounts under scrutiny were created between October 1 and October 20, shortly after voting closed.

Seven had placed no bets on other subjects, while six began trading within 15 minutes of being opened.

The accounts predicted the same finishing order, although not every account traded on all five positions. One trader, using the name “kraben006,” backed each of the five places separately.

An analysis of blockchain transactions published by Upside showed approximately $309,000 deposited across the accounts and $500,000 subsequently withdrawn. The first withdrawal reportedly occurred just 19 minutes after the results were announced.

Upside traced transactions linking several accounts, but could not establish that all 12 belonged to one person. It also found a connection between a wallet associated with kraben006 and Deblock, a French financial app whose identity-verification records could help investigators identify a customer.

Who Knew the Results?

The Ballon d’Or is determined by a jury of international journalists, with the results kept confidential until the ceremony. Former France Football editor Pascal Ferré has said only a handful of people should know the winner beforehand.

The timing and accuracy of the wagers raise the possibility that someone obtained advance knowledge of the rankings, but no leak has been established, and the identities of the bettors remain unknown.

Correct predictions alone are not evidence of wrongdoing.