Las Vegas Bookmaker Johnny Avello: MLB Injuries Leaving a Mark on Betting Futures

Posted on: March 26, 2025, 05:40h. 

Last updated on: March 26, 2025, 05:45h.

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• Gerrit Cole leads the way on early season injury news
• Scherzer thumb issues in Toronto cast doubts on Blue Jays’ starting rotation
• Dodgers big favourites to win it all

Some major early season injuries are having an impact not only on the rosters of Major League Baseball teams but also on betting lines.

Cole a Massive Loss for Yankees

There was no bigger item this spring training than the news that New York Yankees’ ace Gerrit Cole was lost for the entire season due to Tommy John surgery. He likely will miss part of next season as well. The Yankees season gets going tomorrow against the Milwaukee Brewers (3 p.m. EST).

This is a team that lost Juan Soto in free agency to the New York Mets this off-season.

Also on the offence side, Giancarlo Stanton is dealing with tendinitis in both elbows. Surgery is a possibility.

Despite that, at DraftKings, the Yankees are at +850 to win the World Series, after the Los Angeles Dodgers (+275) and Atlanta Braves (+750).

Dodgers the Big Betting Story

[The Yankees] did make a couple of moves, with [Cody] Bellinger and [Paul] Goldschmidt,” said Johnny Avello, the Las Vegas bookmaker, and Director of Race & Sportsbook at DraftKings. “They lost some guys too. But they have [Aaron] Judge. He has tremendous regular seasons but seems to struggle in the post season now. But [the Yankees] are going to be a competitive team all year long. Betting slowed down a little bit [after Cole went down]. The faucet hasn’t shut off, it’s just not as strong as it was.”

The Dodgers are the big story on the betting side, coming off their World Series Championship last Fall.

“They are Dodgers are absolutely loaded, and then they get [Blake] Snell, so they improved even more,” he said. “We shortened our price on them even more this morning. We were +290, now we are at +275 for the Dodgers to win it all. I have seen this before – you have a powerhouse team that goes in but that doesn’t mean you hand them the championship. Everything went right for them last year but they could have been knocked out by the Padres very easily, and not even made the World Series.”

Soto Boosts Mets Betting

Bettors are all over the Mets as well at DraftKings, on the futures book, he said (+1200 to win the World Series). 

“The Mets are going in with the hopes of starting the way they finished last season (89-73, and a Wildcard berth), and now they get [Juan] Soto, and sign [Pete] Alonso. The team is intact, and that’s why we are seeing more money on the Mets,” Avello said.

A couple of surprises. The bettors like the Red Sox (+2000). The Reds are another team that is surprising [on the betting side].”

Over in Texas, the Rangers face a big problem after key pitcher Jon Gray fractured a wrist after being hit by a comebacker during a Cactus League game.

Full Injury List

The Mets are missing catcher Francisco Alvarez, who hit 25 home runs as a rookie in 2023, 11 last year, and is now out after fracturing his hand. The Atlanta Braves placed Ronald Acuna Jr. on the IL with a knee injury. Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles is starting the season on the injured list. The Padres are going to error on the side of caution and keep pitcher Yu Darvish on the injured list with elbow inflammation.

And in Toronto, a Blue Jays (+6000) team that is banking on its starting pitcher is waiting to hear how free agent signee Max Scherzer feels. Scherzer is dealing with thumb issues on his pitching hand, and makes his debut against the Baltimore Orioles Saturday in the third game of their opening series.

Centerfielder Daulton Varsho is coming off rotator cuff surgery from last Fall and might not make the opening day roster. The Blue Jays have a deep starting pitching staff – Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Scherzer and Bowden Francis – but they are older (average age of 34), and any health hiccup could tip over the entire cart.

Seattle Mariners’ starting pitcher George Kirby, an all-star in 2023, will likely miss the start of the season with shoulder inflammation.

A full MLB injury list is here.

Tigers a Good Underdog Pick

All of this is having an impact on MLB futures, traders are reporting, especially with the Yankees.

According to BetMGM, the Yankees are still odds-on favorite to win the AL Pennant, despite the injuries – now at +350 after opening at +290. The Dodgers are far away the betting favorites to win the NL Pennant, at +140.

The Dodgers are World Series betting favorites at BetMGM at +240, followed the Yankees and Atlanta Braves at +900.

“Starting pitching was supposed to be a strength of the Yankees. Losing Gerrit Cole for the season is a major setback and now the American League is wider open. However, New York is still the favorite to win the AL.” said Halvor Egeland, Trading Strategy Manager, BetMGM.

BetVictor reports that things there are even keel so far.

Keep an Eye on the Cubs

“Betting numbers are pretty steady in the run up the season,” said Karl Molyneux, a trader with BetVictor. “Not much movement in the World Series but a small move for the Texas Rangers, 12/1 to 10/1.”

MLB underdogs to keep an eye on from a betting perspective, said Avello: Boston Red Sox (+2000 to win it all), San Diego Padres at (+2800), Detroit Tigers (+3500), the Blue Jays, Cincinnati Reds (+9000).

There are some teams that don’t take any money – the Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins, they haven’t seen a lot,” he said. “There are some sprinkles around some of those other teams. The Chicago Cubs are a team that always takes money. They have Kyle Tucker now and Ryan Pressly from the Astros. They look to be competitive in their division. People will take a shot with them.”