Anthropic Prediction Markets: IPO, Valuations, and More

There is rarely a day when Anthropic is out of the headlines. From hacking organizations during crypto testing to experiencing frequent outages, this American artificial intelligence company continues to dominate the news cycle.

That’s not all, with Alphabet having previously backed Anthropic’s proposed $15 billion AI data campus in Texas. But how have these most recent developments impacted Anthropic-based markets at Polymarket? I’ve taken a close look at some of the standout outcomes, contracts, and odds on this page.

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Current Anthropic Odds and Prediction Markets Explored

Many are backing Anthropic to join the trillion-dollar club by the end of 2026. It’s therefore no surprise that there are several ongoing prediction markets surrounding the AI safety and research organization. Let’s take a closer look.

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO First? The Latest Odds

“Anthropic to IPO First” | “Yes” at 96.5¢ | 96% Chance

Both Anthropic and OpenAI have ambitions to go public, but the former now appears nailed on to achieve this objective first. I’ve had my eye on this market for weeks, and Anthropic’s “Yes” odds have grown from 25% on June 1 to 96% at the time of writing. 

This market now has $335,000 in volume, but traders have recently been looking to consolidate or sell their positions. Anthropic remains firmly on-track to IPO ahead of OpenAI, with a private valuation of over $965 billion (compared to OpenAI’s $852 billion). The company also has a faster revenue run-rate, which soared from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to more than $65 billion in the summer.

OpenAI’s annualized revenue run-rate is around $40 billion lower, and lags far behind from a venture capital perspective.

If you bought “Yes” shares in Anthropic at 25¢, you can sell now for 96.5¢ and achieve a potential return of 286.0%. However, you may find these plans hindered by low liquidity and demand, so I’d instead recommend that you hold your position until settlement.

There’s no value in buying “Yes” shares now, while the theoretical upside offered by an OpenAI price of 3.5¢ means little given the low statistical probability of this outcome occuring.

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Anthropic Acquired Before 2027? What do the Odds Say?

“Anthropic to be Acquired Before 2027” | “No” at 97¢ | 97% Chance

That leads me nicely onto this next Anthropic prediction market. Anthropic filed a confidential draft S-1 with the SEC back in June, with Wall Street expecting a potential public listing in early October.

This reaffirms the company’s desire to plot a direct and independent path through public markets, rather than seeking a major acquisition.

Following the recent private funding round that created a valuation of $965 billion, investment bankers are reportedly targeting an IPO valuation starting at $1.5 trillion. This could even rise to $2 trillion, making any kind of strategic acquisition virtually impossible to complete.

These factors underpin just a 3% probability of Anthropic being acquired prior to 2027, with this market having a settlement cut-off of December 31st. The odds peaked at 50.5% when the market opened back on November 13th, 2025, but have fallen sharply and consistently ever since.

Ultimately, trading “No” here is the only remotely viable pick. However, buying “No” shares and holding until settlement only unlocks a 3.09% ROI over approximately 4 months, while placing a significant restraint on your capital. Once again, “Yes” is highly unlikely from a statistical perspective, so it may be better to avoid this market completely.

Will Anthropic Flip BTC By December 31? The Most Intriguing Anthropic Prediction Market

“Anthropic to Flip BTC’s Market Cap This Year” | “Yes” at 84¢ | 83% Chance

This is arguably the most interesting of the many Anthropic markets at Polymarket. With over $192,000 in volume, the current “Yes” probability has surged to 83%. Unsure of what that means? This market will be resolved if Anthropic’s public valuation surpasses Bitcoin’s market capitalization at any time between now and December 31. 

This has much to do with Anthropic’s recent private valuation and proposed IPO valuation cap of $2 trillion. This would clearly supersede Bitcoin’s current market cap of around $1.63 trillion, with the asset’s price having briefly touched $81,783.42 on September 3rd.

However, this is considered to be a technical and psychological barrier for traders, and it’s no surprise that the price of BTC has since declined by 2.86% and settled back at $79,443.42. If this trend continues or the price falls further during September (which is historically Bitcoin’s worst-performing month), Anthropic could flip the asset in the coming weeks.

If Anthropic also goes public during this time, the market is highly likely to settle in favor of the company. Remember, you only need Anthropic’s market cap to surpass Bitcoin briefly prior to the end of the year, so consider snapping up “Yes” shares now at 84¢. If the market settles at $1.00 per share, you could achieve an ROI of 19.05% in a relatively short period of time.

US Government Removes Public Access to Another Anthropic Model in 2026? Odds and Pricing

“US Government to Prohibit Another Anthropic Model This Year” | “No” at 94¢ | 93% Chance

Those who have followed Anthropic closely this year will know all about their struggles with President Trump. The President described them as a “woke, radical left” company back in February. 

The Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models were then suspended from public use and subjected to export controls due to reported security concerns. This occurred in June, following a protracted fallout with Donald Trump and high-profile legal dispute.

In March, Anthropic was labelled a supply chain risk and blacklisted by the Department of Defense. The company subsequently sued the Trump administration, managing to overturn the decision the day before the June export ban came into force. After a period of negotiation, all export controls were lifted in full by early July.

It’s unlikely that the US Government will target any other Anthropic models prior to the end of 2026. The previous ban and conflict reflected badly on the Trump administration, with Judge Lin suggesting that their actions had been “illegal and baseless”. Anthropic has also adopted a more proactive approach to regulating its models, introducing tighter safeguards during testing.

Overall, you can buy “Yes” shares on another model being banned in 2026 for just 7¢. This reveals an implied probability of just 7%, which is expected to decline further as the year progresses. You can buy “No” shares for 94¢ and achieve a potential ROI of 6.38% in less than four months, but this requires you to lock up a percentage of your capital for an extended period of time.

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