Anthropic Prediction Markets: IPO Odds, Mythos Release, & More

There is rarely a day when Anthropic is out of the headlines. The artificial intelligence giant behind Claude was forced to disable two of its most powerful models just 72 hours after launch earlier this month. 

The move came after a government export-control order, leaving Mythos 5 and Fable 5 out of action. President Tcontrrump seemingly has a personal vendetta with Anthropic, when he’s not busy overturning World Cup red cards, that is. 

Common sense prevailed, and the Trump administration did ultimately reinstate Fable 5 on July 1. However, there remains a strong interest among prediction market traders in Anthropic contracts at Polymarket.

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The Story Behind Fable 5 and Mythos 5

Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 were launched by Anthropic on June 9 this year. This was like Christmas Day for AI users focusing on software engineering, scientific research, and other complex tasks. However, the hype didn’t last long, and both models were suspended just three days later following a government directive amid security risks. 

The good news for users is that the Mythos 5 is now available for public use in the US once again. However, this is the latest twist in a long-standing saga between Anthropic and senior White House officials. There are multiple ongoing Athropic prediction markets available, so let’s take a closer look at the current probabilities and recent price movements.

Current Anthropic Prediction Markets

Many are backing Anthropic to join the trillion-dollar club by the end of 2026. It’s therefore no surprise that there are several ongoing prediction markets surrounding the AI safety and research organization. Let’s take a closer look.

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Will Anthropic Disable Fable 5 Access for US Customers?

Given the recent turmoil surrounding Fable 5, it would come as no surprise should this model be banned once again. This came after traders pushed the implied probability of restoration before July 1 to 58% and to 74% by July 10. Fable 5 was made available again on July 1.   

President Trump was reported to have said that Anthropic was no longer regarded as a threat to national security. However, the unpredictable nature of the former The Apprentice host means it would be no surprise should he suddenly change his mind.

Polymarket is offering trades on the likelihood that Anthropic will release another Mythos-class model by July 19. With time ticking away, the probability dropped from 53% to 42% within a few hours on July 14. 

When Will Anthropic Release Mythos to the Public?

While Fable 5 was released to the public, Mythos 5 remains exclusive to government partners and vetted defenders. Why we hear you ask? It’s largely because the model features advanced cybersecurity capabilities that could pose a threat to automated hacking and safeguard bypassing.  When will a public model named “Mythos” be released? These were the contract prices on Polymarket at the time of writing:

• By July 21: 10% chance (Yes 11¢, No 92¢)
• By August 31: 45% chance (Yes 46¢, No 56¢)
• By September 30: 83% chance (Yes 85¢, No 19¢)

On July 1, Anthropic released a statement stating: “We’ll begin restoring access tomorrow.” This came after the AI giants agreed to detect and address security risks and to work alongside the US Government to develop protocols. However, it remains to be seen how long the process will take.

When Will Anthropic Announce an IPO?

There is also growing speculation that Anthropic is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO). A draft registration statement was submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 1. 

This could result in a stock market debut on the Nasdaq or NYSE by the fourth quarter. There is a clear strategy to complete the process ahead of OpenAI and to hold the power among AI companies on Wall Street. 

As you can see from the probability percentages below, the market is very much in the air, with no clear resolution date. 

• By July 31, 2026: 1% chance (Yes 0.4¢, No 99.7¢)
• By September 16: 5% chance (Yes 5¢, No 96¢)
• By September 30: 7% chance (Yes 7¢, No 94¢)
• By October 31: 24% chance (Yes 25¢, No 77¢)
• By December 31: 66% chance (Yes 66¢, No 35¢)

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO First?

The battle between Anthropic and OpenAI is intensifying, and Polymarket is offering trades on which AI giant will announce an IPI first. Traders gave Anthropic a 25% chance on June 1, but the probability rose to 84% on July 14. One trader left an interesting comment on Polymarket, stating: “Still bullish on OpenAI. 27% looks undervalued.”

Which Banks Will Take Anthropic Public?

As Anthropic’s journey to Wall Street intensifies, reports at the beginning of June suggested that Anthropic had selected Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to facilitate its public offering. However, with no official announcement, this market remains unresolved. 

This Polymarket market is based on which bank serves as the lead underwriter, book-running manager, and global coordinator for Anthropic’s US initial public offering before December 31. 2027. 

• Goldman Sachs: 53% chance (Yes 54¢, No 48¢)
• Morgan Stanley: 35% chance (Yes 43¢, No 73¢)
• JP Morgan: 1% chance (Yes 1.8¢, No 98.8¢)
• Barclays: 1% chance (Yes 2.3¢, No 99¢)
• Bank of America: 1% chance (Yes 1.7¢, No 99.8¢)

Whichever bank wins the race, it will likely be one of the largest public offerings in history, alongside SpaceX and OpenAI’s confidential listing. 

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