World Cup Betting Data Hints at Decline in Patriotic Betting — Or Are Fans Just Getting Smarter?
Posted on: June 9, 2026, 05:17h.
Last updated on: June 9, 2026, 05:33h.
- England fans back Three Lions less than reputation suggests
- Portugal bettors show strongest home-team bias before World Cup
- Spain betting market appears surprisingly rational despite favorite status
With just two days to go until the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off in Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, sportsbooks (and prediction platforms) are expecting business to soar, with some projections suggesting betting volume could exceed $4 billion in the US alone.
And according to early data on outright-winner bets from Entain, sports gamblers may be getting shrewder – or at least less patriotic.
The data is presented in the form of Entain’s “Patriotic Punter Index,” which looks at how strongly fans in different countries back their own teams.
During sports events, sportsbooks have to contend with “home-team bias.” This is where bettors systematically overvalue teams they support, causing bookmakers to shorten the odds below the team’s “true” probability.
The classic examples are England at major tournaments, Manchester United in the Premier League, or the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL.
The sportsbook ends up carrying disproportionate liability because fans bet with their hearts, although international operators can often mitigate that risk because home-team biases vary from market to market.
England Fans Defy Stereotype
England won the World Cup in 1966 and spent much of the following half-century falling miserably short of expectations, although the team has enjoyed a resurgence in recent tournaments.
England is also a market that’s notorious for home-bias betting – a country with a massive fanbase and huge betting culture.
The England team invariably enters the World Cup with a realistic chance and a highly engaged population that may believe, on some subconscious level, that they can will success into existence simply by lumping money on it.
It’s a well-established phenomenon in behavioral economics that people naturally overestimate the chances of outcomes they want to happen.
This year, however, bettors in England appear to be more circumspect, with just 20% backing their team to win, according to Entain, when it has hovered at around 50% at previous World Cups.
In 2018, England betting fever reached extraordinary levels. By the semi-final against Croatia, the team had become the bookmakers’ biggest liability and betting activity was described as unprecedented.
Various reports at the time noted that England was among bookmakers’ worst outcomes, as patriotic bets flooded in.
The figures this year suggest bettors are taking a more analytical approach to the market – although it should be noted that some home-team bias is still at play here. England is the third favorite to win the World Cup, according to Oddschecker.com, at 8/1 – an implied probability of around 11%, versus 20% of bets.
Portugal Most Patriotic
Portugal, the only team among the favorites never to have won the tournament, stands out as the most patriotic wagering market, with 57% betting on the team to win, versus around a 10% implied probability, according to Entain.
In the US, bettors are more realistic, with just 6% backing the team – or are they? Sportsbooks give USMNT odds of 70/1 to win the tournament, a chance of 1.4%, so they’re actually being quite optimistic.
Perhaps most surprising is Spain. The tournament favorites account for just 16% of domestic bets, almost exactly matching their implied probability of winning the World Cup.
One possible explanation is that Entain’s Spanish-facing brands may not fully reflect the broader Spanish betting market, particularly given the popularity of brands such as Ladbrokes and Coral among British expatriates living in Spain.
In which case, it may be another case of England fans backing their team against their better judgment.
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