US Embraces Prediction Markets While Other G20 Countries Move to Block Them

The United States under President Donald Trump’s second administration is doubling down on prediction markets and the non-traditional trading of event contracts tied to sports, pop culture, and politics. Across the globe, however, governments of several major economies are moving in the opposite direction, seeking to restrict or ban the controversial platforms.

Trump declared this week at the White House, flanked by Michael Selig, the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), that the US will lead in the evolution of prediction markets.

Despite warnings that such platforms are rife with insider trading, including the misuse of confidential military secrets, Trump’s CFTC is moving ahead in solidifying the right of federally regulated prediction markets to offer non-traditional options.

Conversely, numerous economic and financial powerhouses are moving to prohibit prediction markets.

South Korea Bans Polymarket

New York-based Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market outside of the US. This week, Polymarket faced another ban by way of South Korea.

The Korea Media and Communications Commission (KMCC) voted to block internet access to Polymarket after ruling that the platform facilitates illegal gambling. The media regulators determined that Polymarket was in violation of the Criminal Act and the National Sports Promotion Act.

The vote mandates, effective immediately, that internet service providers (ISPs) prohibit access to the Polymarket website and app.

A person found guilty of using a virtual private network (VPN) in South Korea to circumvent the ISP barrier to reach Polymarket commits a crime punishable by a fine of up to KRW10 million (US$7,200).

G20 Crackdown

South Korea becomes the latest G20 nation to inhibit access to Polymarket, following France in July.

Spain, Argentina, and Indonesia have also blocked Polymarket through ISP directives. Other G20 countries that restrict access to the prediction market include Australia, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, Thailand, and the United Kingdom. Four provinces in Canada–Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec–also prohibit Polymarket.

The G20, or Group of 20, is an intergovernmental forum consisting of 19 sovereign countries, the European Union, and the African Union. The G20 works to address major issues related to the global economy, including financial stability. G20 members represent about 85% of the world’s gross domestic product and two-thirds of the world’s population.

South Korea marked the 40th jurisdiction to block Polymarket. For a full list, click here.