Super Bowl Betting: Jacksonville Jaguars a Long Shot Among Final Eight
Posted on: January 20, 2023, 02:23h.
Last updated on: January 20, 2023, 08:29h.
With only eight teams remaining in the NFL playoffs, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the biggest long shot on DraftKings’ futures board at +3500 odds to win Super Bowl LVII.
The Jaguars are one of the hottest teams in the playoffs, riding a six-game winning streak. They won their final five games of the regular season and already won one game in the postseason.
The Jaguars are the #4 seed in the AFC, and clinched the AFC South with a 9-8 record. They defeated the #5 Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC wild card last weekend by pulling off one of the most amazing comebacks in NFL history. The Chargers blew a 27-0 lead and the Jaguars stormed back to win, 31-30.
The Jaguars hope they can replicate what the Cincinnati Bengals achieved last postseason. As the #4 seed last year, the Bengals won the AFC championship. They secured a trip to Super Bowl LVI, but eventually lost to the Los Angeles Rams. In just one season, the Bengals went from a four-win team to winning the AFC championship. In the case of the Jaguars, they’re trying to make an improbable leap from a three-win team to becoming the next AFC champion.
Betting the Jaguars vs. Chiefs
The #1 Kansas City Chiefs host the Jaguars on Saturday afternoon in the AFC Divisional Round. The Jaguars are the biggest underdog on the board this weekend at +9. The points total of 53 over/under is the largest total out of the other four games.
The Jaguars were 9-8 against the point spread (ATS) in the regular season and 1-0 ATS in the postseason. They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six games and 7-3 ATS over their last 10.
The Chiefs are moneyline favorites to defeat the Jaguars at -460. The Jaguars are moneyline dogs at +340 to beat the Chiefs.
The Jaguars are two wins away from claiming the conference championship, but would have to upset the Chiefs and then take down the winner of the #3 Cincinnati Bengals vs. #2 Buffalo Bills. They’re also a long shot at +1400 odds to win the AFC championship.
If you’re looking for a fun stat, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has never lost a game on Saturday in college or in the NFL. He’s 37-0 over his career. That perfect record on a Saturday includes three games in high school, 32 games at Clemson, and two games with the Jaguars.
America loves an underdog, and American bettors love to back an underdog. With eight teams remaining, that’s what the Jaguars are, and it’s hard not to root for them. Just last year, the Jaguars won only three games and looked awful under first-year head coach Urban Meyer. Two years prior, the Jaguars were 1-15. They secured the #1 pick in the draft and selected quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Meyer might have been a good college football coach, but he was out of his league in the NFL. He tried to run the Jaguars like a blue-chip college football program, and his tyrannical coaching methods quickly soured with Jaguars’ veterans.
Meyer lost the locker room early in the season. But it took 13 games before team owner Shad Khan corrected his initial error. Khan fired Meyer after a disastrous 2-11 record.
Lawrence suffered the most under Meyer. He looked completely lost during his rookie season, because Meyer never put him in a position to succeed. Scouts weren’t quick to dismiss Lawrence as a draft bust, but he needed a competent head coach or else his confidence would have been shattered. Khan brought in Doug Pederson as the new head coach to help repair the damage that Meyer inflicted on the team, and especially on Lawrence.
Pederson won a Super Bowl a couple of seasons prior with the Philadelphia Eagles. As a former NFL quarterback, Pederson was the perfect candidate to help mentor the young QB. Heading into the AFC Divisional Round, Lawrence is playing the best ball of his career under a head coach who puts him in a position to win every game.
The Jaguars entered this season without any expectations considering they won four games in the previous two years combined. They were +13000 odds to win the Super Bowl during the preseason, and near the bottom of the NFL futures board at DraftKings.
The Jaguars started the season at 2-1, and saw their odds begin to shrink from +13000 to +10000. The Eagles beat the Jaguars by only eight points in Week 4, and the Jaguars saw their championship odds improve to +6000. That’s as low, or as good, as they’d get in the first half of the season.
By the time the bye week rolled around in Week 11, the Jaguars were 3-7 and their Super Bowl odds had jumped to +20000. After losing to the Detroit Lions in Week 13, the Jaguars were 4-8 and their Super Bowl odds hit their highest (or lowest) point at +30000.
Then the Jaguars unleashed a five-game winning streak to end the season. They seized first place in the AFC South, locking up an automatic berth to the playoffs after defeating the Tennessee Titans in the last game of the season. The Jaguars’ odds gradually shrunk during their winning streak (from +15000 to +8000 to +6000 to +4500 to +4000).
After the Jaguars knocked the Chargers out in the first round of the playoffs, their Super Bowl odds improved from +4000 to +3500, which are still the longest on the board. The New York Giants are the other long shot at +2500 odds.
The Chiefs are the consensus favorite to win Super Bowl LVII at +300 odds, and the Bills aren’t far behind at +350.
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