Sportsbooks to Handle 80% of NFL Bets, More Than 3x Prediction Market Volume

For all the hoopla surrounding prediction markets and expectations that the industry will eat away at sportsbooks’ NFL handle this season, the old guard industry is expected to control nearly 80% of pro football wagers this year.

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) estimates that bettors will plunk down $40.5 billion on the NFL this season through regulated wagering venues with $31.7 billion of that tally going through traditional sportsbooks compared to handle analog of $8.4 billion for prediction markets, good for a 79%/21% split. Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.

Based on its projections, EKG sees the sports wagering industry growing 8% year-over-year, topping the current growth rate of 5% — a figure that strips out the temporary effects of the World Cup.

Assuming that 8% spurt is realized, it’d be impressive because since the end of the 2025 football season, only Missouri and Alberta, Canada joined the live and legal sports betting party with Arkansas opening to DraftKings and FanDuel earlier this year.

Prediction Markets ‘Meaningful,’ But Still Small

Prediction markets have proven prolific at attracting sharp bettors and whales that are often limited or outright banned by sportsbooks. However, various surveys indicate that when given the choice between a sportsbook and yes/no exchange, many recreational bettors prefer the former. That may be one reason why prediction markets are in “second place.”

It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.

Sportsbooks Have Spending Advantage

One of the marquee advantages possessed by sportsbook operators is that they can entice customers with larger acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG notes, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because their clients trade against each other.

That’s a meaningful distinction at a time when sportsbooks are spending big to lure bettors. For example, Bet365 has a welcome offer of $365 with rivals Fanatics and FanDuel featuring promotions of up to $350. Those enticements make the $25 to $50 bonuses seen on prediction markets seem paltry.

“That said, we hear reports from channel checks that prediction markets are spending heavily on digital marketing including app stores and pay-per-click (PPC), which could make our forecast look light by the end of the season,” concludes EKG.