Spanish La Liga Team Denies Using Kalshi to Hedge Against Relegation
Posted on: June 10, 2026, 06:32h.
Last updated on: June 10, 2026, 06:35h.
- Osasuna says it hedged relegation risk through insurance, not Kalshi
- Semafor report alleged Spanish club traded millions on relegation outcome
- Kalshi position matched insurance policy’s €1.2m stake and €6m payout
Spanish soccer team Club Atlético Osasuna has cast doubt on claims it hedged against the financially perilous prospect of relegation from La Liga by betting against itself on prediction platform Kalshi.
In a statement issued Monday, the club – which finished fourth from bottom of the league last season, thus avoiding the drop – said that it did hedge against relegation but via an insurance firm, a common practice in soccer.
For a club of Osasuna’s size, relegation could easily translate to a €40–€60 million hit in revenues through lost broadcasting income, sponsorships, and other commercial earnings.
The Kalshi Allegation
The statement followed a flurry of reports about Osasuna’s alleged prediction-market activity after Semafor first reported the story last week.
That news outlet claimed that a Spanish team, without naming Osasuna directly, had traded “millions of dollars” on its own relegation.
On the other side of the trade was quant-trading firm Susquehanna, which made more than $1 million when the team avoided relegation on goal difference despite losing 1-0 in its final game of the season, according to Semafor.
Semafor declined to name Osasuna, but it was the only team in La Liga whose predicament matched the one described in the article, leaving other outlets to make the deduction themselves.
The allegation, if true, would raise integrity questions about whether soccer rules permit clubs to profit directly from bets on their own sporting performance.
In its statement Monday, Osasuna said it had secured a €1.2 million insurance policy from British firm the Howden Group that would guarantee compensation of €6 million in the event of relegation.
The club published documents showing the existence of the Howden policy and correspondence indicating that La Liga had been consulted about the arrangement.
“Osasuna’s involvement in this matter was strictly limited to purchasing coverage from Howden to partially offset the economic impact of a potential relegation,” it added. “The club reserves the right to take any actions necessary to defend its interests and reputation.”
Differing Accounts
Notably, the statement made no mention of Kalshi or any prediction-market transactions. It also appears difficult to reconcile with the Semafor report, which claimed that Osasuna went to a firm called Game Point Capital to broker the trade, which was arranged through another firm called Greenlight Commodities.
Semafor described Greenlight as a “middleman for institutions looking to place bets on prediction markets” and also interviewed Game Point CEO Will Hall, who was quoted as saying: “We want to see how prediction markets would handle this and it was a good test case – a large and binary outcome.”
The final twist comes from gaming journalist Daniel O’Boyle, who confirmed on the X platform that a Kalshi trade matching the one described in the Semafor story really did exist – a €1.2 million position on Osasuna to be relegated, which would have yielded €6 million had it come to fruition.
The figures are identical to those disclosed by Osasuna for its relegation insurance policy.
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