Politics

AOC Surges to 2028 Democratic Favorite on Prediction Markets, Polls Disagree

Posted on: August 13, 2026, 10:30h.

Last updated on: August 13, 2026, 10:30h.

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Devin O'Connor Devin O'Connor is a senior reporter for Casino.org, covering politics, casino business, and gaming news. Devin came on board with Casino.org in 2014...
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Key Points

AOC has surged to the top of Polymarket’s 2028 Democratic nomination market, with her implied odds rising from 14% to 19%
Prediction markets and polls disagree on the Democratic race: AOC leads the market, while polls show Kamala Harris ahead
The GOP race remains a two-horse contest between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, with Vance holding a commanding advantage

U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), or AOC, is now the trading front-runner on prediction markets to win the Democratic Party’s ticket for the 2028 presidential election.

AOC 2028 prediction markets Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks to reporters on the House steps after a series of votes at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on July 22, 2026. AOC has emerged as the trading front-runner on prediction markets. (Image: Getty)

AOC has been making headlines following her Aug. 9 appearance on ABC’s “This Week,” where she left the door open to a 2028 presidential run when host Jonathan Karl pressed her about her political aspirations. The New York Democrat has also drawn attention for announcing that she froze her eggs and for her split from longtime partner and former fiancé Riley Roberts.

On the legislative front, Ocasio-Cortez, along with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), reintroduced the Green New Deal for Public Housing Act on Aug. 6.

The heightened attention has caught the eye of prediction market traders, who have recently been buying up contracts on AOC becoming the Democratic nominee for president in 2028. For now, however, pollsters disagree with the markets.

AOC 2028 Odds

On prediction market Polymarket, AOC’s stock has been surging over the past month.

As of 11:15 a.m. EST on Aug. 13, Ocasio-Cortez’s shares of securing the Democratic presidential nomination are trading at implied odds of 19%, with each share priced at 19 cents. A month ago, those same shares were trading at 14 cents.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), the longtime presumed betting favorite for the Democratic ticket, has seen his stock decline. Newsom shares for 2028 have dropped from 20 cents a month ago to 17 cents this week.

Sen. John Ossoff (D-Ga.) is third at 15 cents, and former Vice President Kamala Harris is fourth at seven cents. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) round out the top five at five cents apiece.

The polls are currently at odds with the prediction markets.

According to the RealClearPolitics consensus average of the latest polls, Harris is the heavy favorite for the Democratic ticket. The RCP average suggests the former VP has a 12.5-point lead on Newsom, her closest challenger.

AOC has a 20-point deficit to Harris, though it should be noted that the polls included in the average were before Ocasio-Cortez hinted at a White House run to Karl.

2028 GOP Ticket

On the Republican side, the 2028 ticket is shaping up to be a two-horse race between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Despite a recent selloff in which Vance’s shares crashed 13 cents, the VP remains the front-runner, with his Polymarket shares at 43 cents. Rubio’s stock has been surging, though he currently remains in a distant second at 23 cents. No other candidate currently has implied odds of more than 5%.

Polls align with the prediction markets regarding the GOP. The RCP average has Vance with an 18.2-point lead over Rubio, 39.8 to 21.6.