State of Union Delivers President Joe Biden a Betting Boost, But Trump Still Favored

Posted on: March 8, 2024, 10:12h. 

Last updated on: March 8, 2024, 10:28h.

President Joe Biden is seeing his 2024 reelection odds improve slightly. That’s following his State of the Union address Thursday night, which most political pundits called a strong showing for the 81-year-old.

Joe Biden 2024 odds Donald Trump
President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address on Thursday, March 7, 2024. Biden performed well, many political pundits said afterward, which helped improve his reelection odds. (Image: Reuters)

A fiery, if not angry, Biden stressed to the nation that the union is strong. He asked for the country’s support in allowing him a second term by promoting his successes. Biden criticized his predecessor for the January 6 insurrection and attacked the Supreme Court sitting before him for overturning Roe v. Wade.

Biden said murder victim Laken Riley’s name, though many heard “Lincoln” Riley, and managed to stay on script when the father of a Marine killed in Afghanistan heckled the president for what Republicans called a botched withdrawal. With Biden’s mental capacity repeatedly questioned, viewers tuned in to see how the oldest president in U.S. history would perform in what was Biden’s best chance to reach the broadest audience for his reelection.

According to political bettors, Biden fared well.

Biden Bounce

On political wagering exchange Smarkets, Biden has seen his implied 2024 odds improve.

Before the SOTU, the president had about a 32% chance of winning in November, according to Smarkets bettors. As of Friday morning, his stock has climbed to more than 34%. Biden’s performance also quieted some critics about his mental fitness. His chances of being the Democratic nominee jumped from 76% to 80%.

At UK sportsbooks, where political betting is allowed, William Hill has Biden at 1/5 — an implied chance of 83.3% — to win his party’s ticket for a second consecutive presidential election.

Despite Biden’s SOTU betting boost, former President Donald Trump remains the 2024 front-runner. The billionaire former casino owner has an implied chance of about 48.5% of winning on November 5. His overseas odds are 5/6, an implied shot of 54.5%.

Biden’s biggest win on Thursday night was presumably fending off concerns about his age.

My fellow Americans, the issue facing our nation isn’t how old we are — it’s how old our ideas are,” the president said toward the end of his speech. “Hate, anger, revenge, and retribution are the oldest of ideas. You can’t lead America with ancient ideas that only take us back,” the President declared.

Biden also went after Trump for his unwillingness to leave the White House after losing the 2020 election.

“My predecessor and some of you here seek to bury the truth about January 6. I will not do that. Here’s the simple truth: you can’t love your country only when you win,” Biden said.

Polling Favors Trump

According to the latest polls compiled by Real Clear Politics, Trump has a 1.8-point advantage over Biden. Biden is ahead in only four of the 12 polls included in the composite.

The Harvard-Harris and NY Times/Siena polls have Trump up six points. Biden’s biggest lead is four points in the Quinnipiac poll.

Unsurprisingly, Trump bashed Biden’s SOTU performance.

“Crooked Joe Biden is on the run from his record and lying like crazy to try and escape accountability for the horrific devastation he and his party have created,” Trump said on his Truth Social media platform.