Ontario-Banned Polymarket Draws $500K in Bets on Toronto Mayoral Race

Canadian securities regulators are clamping down on prediction markets offered by online brokers as offshore platform Polymarket records over US$500,000 in trading volume on the upcoming Toronto mayoral election.

First reported by Covers, the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) has updated its terms and conditions to explicitly prohibit event contracts tied to sports or entertainment outcomes.

“Further to the August 27 joint CSA and CIRO guidance, CIRO does not consider it appropriate to facilitate or approve an application by its Investment Dealer Members to trade event contracts based on sports and entertainment events or outcomes,” CIRO said in an Oct. 16 statement. “In this respect, CIRO has specifically enumerated such contracts as prohibited in the updated terms and conditions.”

Political Contracts Remain Prohibited

Under existing CIRO rules, authorized investment dealers can offer event contracts tied only to economic forecasts, environmental indicators, and financial markets, with a minimum 30-day maturity period. Contracts involving elections and other political outcomes remain strictly prohibited.

CIRO is also banning investment dealer members from presenting or promoting non-permitted contracts to clients, such as political betting, so clients don’t mistake them for authorized Canadian products.

The guidance builds on joint regulatory framework updates issued last March by CIRO—the national self-regulatory body governing investment dealers—and the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA).

Wealthsimple Predict and Polymarket Activity

Interactive Brokers Canada Inc. and Wealthsimple are the only CIRO investment dealer members authorized to offer regulated event contracts. Wealthsimple Predict officially launched in July following initial regulatory approval.

Despite those restrictions, Polymarket has attracted more than $500,000 in trading volume on Toronto’s Oct. 26 mayoral election. The activity could involve foreign traders, Canadians circumventing geographic restrictions, or both, although the platform’s publicly reported volume does not establish where participants are located.

Trading on the Toronto mayoral race shows a razor-thin contest ahead of the Oct. 26 vote: challenger Brad Bradford holds 50% odds ($201,762 volume), while incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow sits at 49% odds ($258,735 volume).

New Canadian Competitor Emerges

Domestic options in the event contract space may soon expand beyond Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers.

As first reported by The Globe and Mail, a executive team led by former Vanguard Canada CEO Atul Tiwari has filed an application with CIRO seeking registration as an investment dealer. The group aims to launch VerdX, a regulated Canadian platform dedicated to event contracts.