Political Betting Markets ‘Extraordinarily Pessimistic’ About President Biden 2024 Odds
Posted on: January 20, 2022, 04:31h.
Last updated on: January 20, 2022, 04:51h.
Political betting markets aren’t exactly bullish on President Joe Biden winning a second term in 2024.
Today marks the one-year anniversary of Biden’s inauguration. But the American people are not overly pleased with Biden’s first year as Commander-in-Chief.
Real Clear Politics says Biden’s consensus approval rating is just 40.9 percent. With the public becoming increasingly frustrated with Biden’s job performance, political bettors believe there’s little chance that the 79-year-old will win a second term.
PredictIt, a political betting exchange where traders buy and sell shares of political outcomes, has Biden with a 23 percent chance of winning reelection. Political bettors who buy Biden now at 23 cents a share would net 77 cents per share purchased, should he win a second term.
Smarkets, another political exchange, has Biden even longer to win in 2024. The president holds just a 16 percent chance of being reelected on the platform.
The betting markets are extraordinarily pessimistic about President Biden’s prospects in 2024,” said Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets’ head of political markets. “For a sitting president to be given just a 16 percent chance of reelection at this stage is unheard of — even Trump’s odds never looked as bad during his presidency.”
Former President Donald Trump is the front-runner on both PredictIt and Smarkets.
Smarkets gives the 75-year-old billionaire a 22 percent chance of becoming only the second US president to serve two terms non-consecutively (the other being President Grover Cleveland). PredictIt has Trump higher at a 30 percent chance of winning the 2024 presidential election.
A Biden vs. Trump rematch isn’t something many Americans want, so says a new poll released today. A national survey conducted by the AP/NORC concluded that just 28 percent of Americans want Biden to seek a second term. And only 27 percent want Trump to run again.
But the betting markets suggest those two are the likeliest names to represent the Democratic and Republican presidential tickets in two years.
PredictIt gives Trump a 38 percent chance of being the GOP presidential nominee. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is next at 29 cents. PredictIt has Biden winning the Democratic nod at 37 percent, and VP Kamala Harris second at 20 cents.
Biden said in November amid rumblings that he would not seek a second term that he will indeed run, but only if his health allows for it. He doubled down on that this week, and added that Harris will again be on the ticket.
“Yes and yes,” Biden answered yesterday about his running in 2024 and whether Harris would continue to be his second-in-command. Asked to explain, the president responded, “There’s no need to. She’s going to be my running mate, number one. And number two, I did put her in charge. I think she’s doing a good job,” the president said.
Another Rematch Possible
Democrats and Republicans are still largely unsure of who will represent their parties in 2024. But with Trump likely on the conservative side, the Democrats are scrambling to find someone who can beat Trump who isn’t named Biden.
A familiar name who needs no introduction is emerging: Hilary Clinton.
Political bettors are beginning to look elsewhere when assessing the next Democratic nomination race, and in the last couple of weeks Hillary Clinton has come from nowhere,” Shaddick said of Clinton’s momentum.
Clinton currently has a five percent chance on Smarkets of winning her party’s presidential support for a second time.
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