NHL Free Agency Betting: Where Does Mitch Marner End Up?

Posted on: June 16, 2025, 02:44h. 

Last updated on: June 16, 2025, 08:31h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs’ star right wing Mitch Marner is set to become a free agent at the season’s end
  • FanDuel has opened a market on Marner’s next team, with the Las Vegas Golden Knights the betting favorite
  • Other teams expected to vy for Marner’s services reportedly include the Carolina Hurricanes, the Anaheim Ducks, and the Pittsburgh Penguins, among others

The Mitch Marner story just took a hard turn, with senior NHL journalist Elliotte Friedman writing over the weekend that the right winger is currently  “not engaged” in contract talks with the Toronto Maple Leafs, and all signs point to him leaving when he hits free agency July 1.

With the Stanley Cup Finals wrapping up soon and the Florida Panthers currently leading the Edmonton Oilers 3 games to 1, the focus soon turns to NHL free agency, with Mitch Marner the top headline-maker. (Image: Shutterstock)

Friedman is as credible as they come, so when bettors saw the post over the weekend, wagering on Marner changed with it.  The latest twist on the story: Marner today cancelled his annual Marner Assist Foundation charity event on July 10-11, amid uncertainty of where he will be.

FanDuel is offering a “Mitch Marner Next Team” market, and when we checked last week, the Leafs were at +550, right behind the Vegas Golden Knights (+300) in terms of the betting favorites.

A quick look on Monday shows the Leafs are off the board now. This morning it’s the Las Vegas Strip and the Golden Knights at +230, the Carolina Hurricanes (+470), the rebuilding Anaheim Ducks, with Joel Quenneville as new team coach (+650), the Pittsburgh Penguins (+650), with ex-Leafs GM Kyle Dubas running the show in Pittsburgh, the Chicago  Blackhawks (+750), and Los Angeles Kings (+1000) rounding out the FanDuel board.

Oddsmakers Like the Golden Knights

A FanDuel trader told Casino.org that “based on bettor activity, the top three potential teams are the. Vegas Golden Knights, the. Toronto Maple Leafs, and the. LA Kings.”

Vegas is the favorite so far with 15% of bets placed on the team.

From our chair, the Golden Knights are in the driver’s seat if Marner’s focus is to win now when he hits the open market. 

He’s 28 years old and finished last season with 27 goals and 75 assists. Marner’s a spectacular player and, arguably, the best free agent available this summer. But, in nine years as an NHLer with the Leafs (drafted 4th overall in 2015), he hasn’t been able to get it done in the playoffs.

Marner’s Downside

While Marner is a great player, there are some negatives surrounding him. Some say he’s too small in stature and others believe he melts when the playoff pressure cranks up.

Some of the more snide X posts during the current Stanley Cup series between the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers compare the Panthers’ Sam Bennett’s 15 goals during the playoffs this spring (leading the NHL) with Marner’s 13 playoff goals over his entire career. Bennett is also an unrestricted free agent this summer.

According to PuckPedia the Golden Knights have US$9.6 million in cap space, and there’s chatter that the health of top-4 defenseman Alex Pietrangelo is in jeopardy for the 2026-26 season, making him a candidate for the long-term injury reserve list, thus clearing his salary off the books for next season and clearing more space to take a run at Marner, who’s is expected to exceed US$14 million in AAV with his next contract.

9 Years with the Maple Leafs

The Golden Knights have been an all-in organization since they joined the NHL in 2017, and have one Cup win (2023) to show for it already. 

Either way, once Marner hits the market — whether it’s a sign-and-trade where the Leafs get assets back to clear up space for the Golden Knights to sign Marner, or the Golden Knights do something to clear room on the books — plenty of work still needs to be done.

Marner heading to the West Coast makes sense.

Toronto is a grueling place to play hockey; the winters and long and hard, and Marner has been at the forefront of abuse hurled against the organization for every playoff failure since 2015. Marner has a new child, and would understandably want to parachute as far away from Toronto as possible.

What About DraftKings?

DraftKings is also offering a Marner market where the current odds shake out as follows:

  • Golden Knights +350
  • Hurricanes +400
  • Kings +600
  • Ducks +700
  • Mammoth +1000
  • Panthers +1000
  • Blackhawks +1200
  • Leafs +2000