NFL MVP Odds – Who Are the Frontrunners?

The 2026 NFL season is now well underway, with the 49ers, Vikings, and the Bills all excelling in the opening five rounds of fixtures.

A number of star players have also enjoyed superb starts to the campaign. These include San Francisco’s quarterback Brock Purdy, who has already thrown 1,196 yards across five appearances. The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes also rolled back the years as he threw 382 yards and three touchdowns to secure victory against the Colts on September 21st, while he has thrown a total of nine touchdowns so far.

Unsurprisingly, such performances are generating significant interest in the NFL MVP winner market on Polymarket. More than $1.2 million has been traded on event contracts so far, with Purdy and Allen now tied as the joint market favorites.

Both players are currently afforded a 27% chance of winning the award by traders. But who are the best value picks in the market?

Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other options? Here’s our list of the best sports prediction markets.

Josh Allen Odds – His Price Has Contracted, But Does He Now Offer Value?

“Josh Allen” | “Yes” at 27¢ | 27% Chance

While Allen has never won or even appeared in a Super Bowl, he was crowned the regular season MVP in 2024. He has started the current campaign in superb form, too, throwing 1,249 yards and seven touchdowns in his five starts.

The offseason appointment of offensive coordinator Joe Brady as head coach is having a hugely positive impact on Allen’s game. The brains behind LSU’s record-breaking college football season in 2019, Brady has replaced the outgoing Sean McDermott and now has full tactical control over the side.

Brady is best-known as a passing coordinator who prioritizes dynamism and unpredictability, creating more options when Allen is in possession. His switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base also highlights a more offensive approach that will maximize the quarterback’s unique skillset.

Of course, Brady’s structural switch has negatively impacted the Bills defense. The franchise has allowed an average of 388.60 defensive yards per game so far in 2026, while shipping 18 touchdowns. However, they’re currently averaging 32.8 points-per-game from an offense perspective, and Allen will continue to benefit from his coach’s aggressive tactics.

Despite initially falling from a previous peak of 32¢, Allen’s “Yes” shares have seen their value increase by 35% since October 7th. This hike has been mirrored by similar US prediction markets. The current benchmark of 27¢ subsequently has considerably less upside than it did last week, especially given the intense level of competition that exists in the market.

However, there’s definitely some value in buying “Yes” shares now and looking to hold deep into the regular season or until settlement. Just note that this introduces potential liquidity traps, so be sure to identify a viable exit point.

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Brock Purdy Odds – A Value Pick With Huge Potential Upside

“Brock Purdy” | “Yes” at 27.2¢ | 27% Chance

Brock Purdy has taken center stage for the 49ers this season, averaging an impressive 239.2 yards per game. He starred again during an impressive road win in Seattle over the weekend, throwing 189 yards, two touchdowns, and completing 19 of his 29 attempted passes (65.5%).

Overall, he ranks first for the number of touchdowns thrown so far in 2026 (13). Purdy has also completed 98 of his 142 total attempted passes, ranking ninth overall for accuracy with a completion rate of 69%. His Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) of 85.5 on ESPN is also unrivaled and highlights the incredible influence he has on his team.

Purdy’s impressive statistical efficiency also betrays his consistency. So, it’s no surprise that his price has soared by 124.8% from just 12.1¢ on September 24th, while it has the potential to rise further throughout the regular season.

With Allen no longer dominant in the market and Purdy continuing to defy his outdated reputation as a system quarterback, the price could peak at around 40¢ as the season progresses. So, continue to hold your position if you’ve bought “Yes” shares previously, or consider buying in now.

Lamar Jackson Odds – An Underpriced Two-Time MVP Winner

“Lamar Jackson” | “Yes” at 5¢ | 5% Chance

Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson saw his price drop from 14¢ to 6¢ in week four (57.14%). This followed an ankle injury he sustained during the first half of the Ravens’ home game against Tennessee.

Interestingly, Jackson had performed superbly during the opening two quarters, completing 15 of his 20 attempted passes (75%) for 222 yards and two touchdowns. Head coach Jesse Miller has suggested that the injury is unlikely to be long-term, and while Jackson missed out against the Falcons in week five, there’s a good chance that he’ll be fit to face the Browns next time out.

Jackson remains the engine of the Ravens offensive unit. He has thrown 967 yards in total through 2026 and completed 10.1 yards per passing attempt. He averages 241.8 yards per game and has completed 70.8 of his total attempted passes, too. His own QBR rating of 80.3 is second only to Purdy, too, and he remains a key contender in the market (fitness permitting).

Jackson has also won two historic regular season MVP awards, in 2019 and 2023. So, even when you factor in his recent injury, it’s slightly surprising to see him now priced as low as 5¢ in the market.

Jackson’s current “Yes” shares are definitely undervalued. The markets have undoubtedly overreacted to his injury, especially when you consider its short-term nature and his previous form. Additionally, the Ravens are expected to fare well in the AFC, and team performance is highly influential when determining the eventual MVP winner. 

So, if Baltimore wins consistently and keeps pace with the Bills, Jackson’s price could quickly increase to the 25¢ – 30¢ range. This will create a viable exit point towards the end of the season if you buy “Yes” now.

Patrick Mahomes Odds – A Historically Proven and Heavily Underpriced Contender

“Patrick Mahomes” | “Yes” at 10.9¢ | 11% Chance

Mahomes is another two-time MVP winner (in 2018 and 2022), while he has been voted the Super Bowl’s Most Valuable Player on three separate occasions. 

The 31-year-old has started the new campaign in fine form, too. He has thrown an impressive 1,037 yards and nine touchdowns in four matches so far, while averaging 259.3 passing yards per game. Mahomes was influential once again in the Chiefs’ most recent win at the Raiders, throwing 225 yards and two touchdowns as Kansas ran in 20 fourth quarter points.

So, why can you buy “Yes” shares in Mahomes for just 10.9¢? Well, his late-season injury in 2025 involved complete tears of both the ACL and LCL, while he has since undergone extensive reconstructive surgery of the affected knee.

This may be deterring casual traders from backing Mahomes in the market. Similarly, the Chiefs endured a difficult season in 2025, going 6–11 (.353) and failing to reach the playoffs. Despite their positive start in 2026, traders remain cautious as the side’s identity continues to evolve.

This creates opportunity, however, and there’s definitely value in backing Mahomes at his current price. The quarterback’s pedigree means that his price could increase rapidly if he and the Chiefs continue to perform well, potentially reaching the 20¢ – 25¢ range by mid-season. This is despite relatively slow price growth so far.

This could deliver a maximum ROI of 129.3% in a relatively short period of time. Although the price could peak above 40¢ if the Chiefs compete for the AFC top seeding, holding your position for this long unlocks higher risk and potentially lower liquidity.

The Last Word – Trading the NFL MVP Winner Market

This market is focused on the regular season MVP winner, and it will settle on or around 14th February, 2027. Note that this is completely separate to the Super Bowl MVP award, which is awarded to the best and most influential player in the NFL’s showpiece game.

In terms of market options, you should also note that QBs have dominated the NFL MVP regular season award. In fact, it has been won by quarterbacks on 49 occasions since 1957, with 34 separate players claiming the honor. Quarterbacks have also won in 13 consecutive seasons since 2013.

Brock Purdy has quickly emerged as the joint-favorite alongside as the Bill’s Josh Allen. This is thanks in part to the superb start made by the 49ers. However, there’s also huge value in backing Lamar Jackson at his current discounted price, while Patrick Mahomes continues to be undervalued by traders.

Regardless of your pick, be sure to identify a potential exit price for each of your trades. This will help you to strike the balance between maximizing profits and avoiding low liquidity traps.

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