NFL Draft Chaos: Why Bookmakers Are Fearing a ‘Wild’ Night
Posted on: April 22, 2026, 07:52h.
Last updated on: April 22, 2026, 08:57h.
- NFL Draft set for 8 p.m. EST Thursday in Pittsburgh, on ESPN, ABC
- QB Mendoza -20000 to go to the Vegas Raiders at No. 1 overall
- Bettors like Edge Arvell Reese to go No. 1
“It’s never a dull moment,” says DraftKings’ Johnny Avello, as the sportsbook giant braces for the chaos of NFL Draft night.
Mendoza No. 1?
This Thursday in Pittsburgh will be no different – the trades, the last-minute surprise picks.
The New York Giants got an early jump, trading DE Dexter Lawrence to the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday, with the Bengals’ first round pick (10thoverall) going to the Giants – giving New York the fifth and 10th pick in the draft now.
“That’s the difficult part of doing it,” said Avello. “This is all information based, so we really need to stay on top of it. We’re doing a much better job than we’ve ever done the past few years. I think we have a better handle on it. Those trades are going to happen, some before the draft, some during the draft. We’re going to be doing in-play wagering during the draft, staying ahead three picks.
Lawrence Trade Impacts Betting Lines
“Overall, the staff just has to be very aware, not only the day of, but leading up to it, scouring the internet, looking for any information we can find, late breaking news.”
It’s not like there have been betting markets on the NFL Draft going back decades. Avello said it really only cranked up a decade ago.
I go back to my days when I was booking UFC, college lacrosse, a lot of different sports that were new in the booking world,” said Avello. “And even though I could make a line on it, my lines got stronger as I continued to do it. And I think that’s the same with the NFL Draft. We just get better as we continue to keep doing it.”
Bettors Like Reese
Sometimes the first overall pick is uncertain – just not this year, with the Las Vegas Raiders expected to take QB Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick (-20000 at DraftKings).
At theScore Bet, Mendoza is getting 13.8% of bets, and 51.4% of handle, to go first overall. Edge Arvell Reese is seeing the most betting action to go No. 2 (46.8% of bets, 67.8% of handle), edge David Bailey to go No. 3 (21.9% of bets, 33.8% of handle), running back Jeremiyah Love to go No. 4 (21.7% of bets, 43.6% of handle), and LB Sonny Styles to go No. 5 (11.9% of bets, 26.4% of handle).
“At Caesars, we’re excited for the NFL Draft to kick off this Thursday, as it signals that we’re that much closer to the start of the NFL season,” said Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook. “Our trading team has been locked in over the past few weeks, combing through the latest rumors, reports, and team intel to fine-tune our draft markets.
More Trade Activity?
We anticipated trade activity heading into draft week, and we got our first major move over the weekend with the Bengals acquiring Dexter Lawrence from the Giants in exchange for the 10th overall pick. While the deal didn’t have a material impact on either team’s futures prices, it did shake up several draft-related markets.
Feazel said the most notable movement came at the wide receiver position. Jordyn Tyson headlined a workout last week that drew more than 20 teams, and with the Giants now holding an additional top 10 selection, the market reacted swiftly.
Surge of Betting on Tyson
“We saw a surge of action on Tyson to be drafted inside the top 10, making it the biggest adjustment following the trade. As a result, his odds moved significantly, shifting from -160 to -375,” said Feazel.
Avello pointed to Reese and Bailey as two players seeing a lot of betting action at DraftKings.
“I think the Giants probably go for defense, on at least one of those picks, and then maybe on offensive line,” he said. “Two and three are interesting. With Bailey and Reese, those two guys have flip flopped back and forth. So, we have money both ways, with Bailey two or Reese two.
“Mendoza was bet as the No. 1 pick, going way back. That’s the first thing we put up. That’s going back three or four months. He’s such a big favorite now, but when we had it up, he was actually a decent price. I think he was maybe even 40/1 or something, but that was way before he was locked in as the No. 1 pick. There’s been money on Jeremiyah Love moving up to the third spot.”
BetMGM Insights
At BetMGM this morning, the betting stats reflect what other sportsbooks are seeing. Mendoza is the betting favorite to go No. 1, at -10000 (with the highest ticket percentage at 51.7% and the highest handle at 54.3%, with the biggest liability being Ty Simpson). At No. 2, the favorite is Reese at -400 (Bailey is generating the highest ticket percentage at 21.1%, Reese the highest handle at 37.2%, with Love the biggest liability).
At No. 3, the betting favorite is Bailey at +100 (Love is generating the highest ticket percentage, at 15.8%, highest handle at 31.1%, and is the biggest liability there).
Love is the betting favorite to go at No. 4, at -135, followed by Styles to go in the fifth slot (+175).
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