Meta Discussed Kalshi Acquisition, But Talks Didn’t Advance

Posted on: June 30, 2026, 05:48h. 

Last updated on: June 30, 2026, 05:48h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg reportedly met with Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour in 2025
  • They’re said to have discussed a takeover, but talks didn’t get very far
  • The social media company is planning a prediction market of its own

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is said to have kicked the tires on potentially acquiring prediction market Goliath Kalshi, but the discussions didn’t advance.

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The headquarters of Meta Platforms. The Facebook parent reportedly considered making a run at acquiring Kalshi. (Image: Shutterstock)

NPR reports that at some point in 2025, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg met with Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour about the Facebook parent possibly buying the yes/no exchange. Unidentified sources with knowledge of the matter told NPR the talks didn’t advance beyond an informal stage.

That news surfaces a week after reports confirming Meta’s foray into the prediction market space. Zuckerberg has directed a small number of staffers to work on a project known internally as Arena. It’d be a prediction market app, but real money would not be involved. Meta previously tried its hand with a prediction market concept called Forecast in 2020, but company pulled the plug on that effort in 2022.

Another point of intrigue: In a Monday report, Bernstein analysts floated the idea of Kalshi and Polymarket potentially becoming acquisition targets (and possible buyers, too), but technology companies weren’t mentioned as prospective suitors.

Some experts have noted a prediction market where users aren’t staking real capital may have limited appeal, but it remains to be seen how Meta’s Arena evolves.

Differing View on Why Meta, Kalshi Talks Failed

As NPR reports, there are diverging views as to why the takeover talks between Mansour and Zuckerberg didn’t advance.

Some sources say Mansour, who co-founded Kalshi with Luana Lopes Lara in 2018, wasn’t a willing seller. Others claim Zuckerberg was concerned about the various legal and regulatory battles Kalshi is contending with.

One thing is certain: If Meta had been successful in acquiring Kalshi last year, it likely would’ve done so at a price far below the company’s current private market valuation of $22 billion. In mid-2025, the prediction market operator was valued at $2 billion, but that multiple vaulted to $11 billion last December before climbing to $22 billion in March.

Recent rumors suggest Kalshi is pursuing another funding round that could value it at $40 billion. Mansour also confirmed the company is considering an initial public offering (IPO), but he didn’t say that’s a sure thing, adding if it happens, it won’t take place this year.

Meta Not Afraid of Acquisitions

Meta isn’t shy about using acquisitions to add platforms and products in an effort to grow its bottom line. Deal-making is how the social media came to own Instagram (2012) and WhatsApp (2014), among other businesses.

For now, it appears Zuckerberg is comfortable with developing an in-house prediction market, but should he grow restless, Meta has ample financial firepower with which to consider related acquisitions.

The company concluded the first quarter with $81.59 billion in cash on hand, or more than 6x Polymarket’s private market valuation of $15 billion. Translation: Meta can buy any prediction market and do so multiple times over, but it’s not clear if that option is on the table.