Gibraltar Becomes First Jurisdiction to Launch Bespoke Prediction Market Framework

The British Overseas Territory of Gibraltar believes prediction markets are the future of legal online gambling, prompting the government there to embrace the innovative trading platforms.  

Gibraltar’s economy rests heavily on online gambling by licensing internet casinos and sportsbooks to operate as offshore entities, catering to players in countries where such gambling might not be regulated.

As prediction markets continue to flourish in the United States, with many sports bettors taking their wagering action to the platforms that claim to offer derivative trading on sports outcomes, Gibraltar is hoping to expand its reputation as a global iGaming hub to include worldwide prediction markets.  

Today (July 13), Justice, Trade, and Industry Minister Nigel Feetham claimed Gibraltar as the “first jurisdiction in the world to adopt a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets.”

Feetham explained that Gibraltar’s prediction market regime is the world’s first, establishing a regulatory framework that enables prediction markets to operate globally in a transparent, responsible, and “future-ready” environment.

Gibraltar Prediction Markets

In April, Feetham announced that Gibraltar had licensed its first prediction market, ADI Predictstreet. The platform is backed by ADI Chain, a blockchain project based in Abu Dhabi.

At the time, the minister said the Official Prediction Market Partner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup had been designated as a Business-to-Consumer (B2C) Betting Intermediary, a license reserved for betting exchanges.

Such permits cost £100,000 (US$134,000), with annual renewals ranging from £50,000 to £200,000 dependent on gross revenue. In June, Gibraltar licensed its second B2C Betting Intermediary prediction market in WagerWire.

While not specifically naming Predictstreet and WagerWire, Feetham said Gibraltar’s new prediction market opportunity is commencing with two operators.

“We will shortly license the first prediction market operator under this new regime. We have also granted an Approval in Principle to a second operator and expect to issue a further Approval in Principle in the coming weeks,” Feetham detailed.

Feetham added that the prediction market regime “provides regulatory certainty for a rapidly developing global industry while creating new opportunities to attract investment, support high-value employment and further diversify Gibraltar’s economy.”

“Gibraltar is proud to lead the world,” Feetham added. “Together, we are building a modern, trusted, and innovation-friendly environment that supports economic growth.”

Prediction Market Rules

Gibraltar’s prediction market regulations require that operators adhere to numerous operational conditions.

Licensees must have safeguards in place to combat insider trading, such as robust know-your-customer protocols. Prediction markets must only offer trading contracts on markets that have a “clear” settlement and are not “readily susceptible to manipulation.”

It appears that Gibraltar closely studied relevant regulations that the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) imposed on its prediction markets, as much of the language mimics statutory obligations that operators must adhere to under the Code of Federal Regulations for designated contract markets as defined by the Commodity Exchange Act.