Caleb Williams Likely to Win the Heisman, But His USC Trojans Have Long Title Odds
Posted on: November 28, 2022, 05:45h.
Last updated on: November 28, 2022, 06:26h.
What was a two-man race for the Heisman Trophy entering Saturday was all but settled by the end of the night.
Southern Cal quarterback Caleb Williams accounted for four touchdowns, including three on the ground, to lead the sixth-ranked Trojans past No. 15 Notre Dame 38-27 on Saturday night. The sophomore completed 18-of-22 passes for 232 yards and ran for 35 yards on nine carries.
Meanwhile, Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for 349 yards and two scores against Michigan. But he also threw two late interceptions – including a costly one deep in Michigan territory – in a 45-23 loss earlier in the day.
Williams’ Odds Shorten Dramatically
Heading into the weekend, Williams had taken over as the oddsmakers’ top choice, with slightly smaller odds than Stroud at the four major US sportsbooks. Now, though, oddsmakers are certain the Trojans’ field leader will hear his name called on Dec. 10 in New York.
The best price for Williams heading into the weekend was -110 at both Caesars and DraftKings. But on Sunday, FanDuel moved him to -2200 – meaning a $2,200 wager would net a $100 profit.
His new odds represent an implied probability of 95.7%.
BetMGM was offering Williams for -2500.
DraftKings had Williams at +700 to win the prestigious college football award in August, and Barstool Sportsbook had him at +1400 on Oct. 31.
Stroud, meanwhile, remains the second choice at BetMGM with +2000 odds. However, he’s now the third choice at DraftKings (+2500) and at FanDuel +3000 behind TCU quarterback Max Duggan.
Caesars had taken its Heisman futures board down as of Sunday evening.
USC Title Odds Longer
While Williams seems assured of the Heisman, his chances of leading USC to a national title seem much longer.
BetMGM has the Trojans at +1400 to win the national championship. That makes them the fifth choice out of the six teams currently available – only Alabama, at +2500, has longer odds.
Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel offer USC at +1200. Oddsmakers at BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel even have lower odds for Ohio State (+1000 DK and FD, +1100 MGM), despite the Buckeyes not qualifying for the Big Ten Conference championship game.
There’s a lot of discussion taking place now with pundits and fans over which team deserves the final playoff spot, assuming Georgia, Michigan, and TCU are all in, regardless of whether they win their respective conference title games this weekend. Those three squads are 12-0, whereas OSU and USC are 11-1.
USC will have a chance to avenge its lone loss, a one-point defeat at Utah last month. The Trojans and the Utes will play Friday night at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
We should have a good idea of where the College Football Playoff committee is headed come Tuesday, when it releases its latest rankings. Should the members put USC ahead of Ohio State, it would seem that the Buckeyes would then need a USC loss to be considered for the final spot.
But if the panel puts Ohio State at the four spot, then things become interesting.
Currently, the four major sportsbooks have Georgia as the title favorite, with the defending champs available from -155 at DraftKings to -165 at BetMGM. Michigan is the clear second choice, with FanDuel offering the best odds at +300.
TCU is in the same mix with Ohio State and USC, and Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel all have the Horned Frogs at +1200.
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