Analyst: Caesars Takeover Valuation Suggests MGM is Undervalued at $60
Posted on: April 30, 2026, 01:09h.
Last updated on: May 1, 2026, 06:15h.
- Caesars’ rumored takeover price suggests MGM’s true fair value is closer to $60 a share—a nearly 50% premium over current market prices.
- The market is deeply discounting the gaming giant, offering a rare opportunity for investors.
- This conservative estimate completely leaves out the future revenue potential of the upcoming MGM Osaka resort.
If the recent buyout valuation for Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR) holds true, it suggests that rival MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) is significantly undervalued at its current market price.
In a new report to clients, Texas Capital analyst David Bain notes takeover rumors surrounding Caesars are a potential catalyst for MGM. Bain’s comments reflect the fact that the two companies are the largest operators on the Las Vegas Strip with MGM being the bigger of the two in Sin City.
We note CZR’s speculated M&A valuation implies $60 per share MGM value,” observes Bain who has a $56 price target on shares of the Bellagio operator.
Despite his observation, Bain didn’t identify what purported takeover price for Caesars potentially makes MGM worth $60 a share. Recent reports suggest Tilman Fertitta has floated offers for Caesars ranging from $32 to $34 a share while activist investor Carl Icahn is said to have offered $33 a share.
MGM Appears Deeply Discounted
Strip out the conjecture pertaining to Caesars and take the leap of faith that Bain is correct in his assessment the MGM is worth $60 a share based on the Caesars acquisition rumors.
That implies the stock is worth about 50% more than where it trades at today, confirming the view of some major investors that casino operator’s shares are in fact deeply undervalued. But there’s more to the story.
Bain acknowledges his $60 projection on MGM stock doesn’t include MGM Osaka, which is scheduled to open in 2030. He estimates Japan’s first casino resort is worth another $9 to the operator’s share price, implying the stock could be worth as much as $69 a share.
To get to $69 from current levels, MGM stock would need to rise by more than 72%. MGM management seems to agree that the stocks is inexpensive as it remains a dedicated buyer of it.
“MGM repurchased ~2.2 million shares for $90 million during 1Q26. Management indicated its recent sale of Northfield Park allows for more aggressive buybacks at current share price levels versus 1Q. Over the last five years, MGM has reduced its share count by nearly 50%,” notes Bain.
BetMGM Speculation In Rear-View Mirror
Arguably one of the reasons MGM is undervalued is because the company doesn’t control all of BetMGM. That online gaming business is a 50/50 joint venture between the casino giant Entain Plc (OTC: GMVHY). With its economics steadily improving, it’d potentially be a boon for MGM to control all of it.
There’s been some talk of late regarding Entain “optionality” around BetMGM, but nothing concrete has emerged as of yet.
Bain points out “the potential for BetMGM/omnichannel value unlocking” is a possible catalyst for MGM stock, but he didn’t elaborate further.
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