Buffalo Bills Back From Bye Week in Primetime; NY’s Giants, Jets In Unusual Territory

Posted on: October 28, 2022, 04:07h. 

Last updated on: October 28, 2022, 04:22h.

Josh Allen gets back to work Sunday night coming off a bye week, perhaps becoming the next person to make Aaron Rodgers look over the hill. Allen’s Buffalo Bills are 11-point favorites against a Green Bay Packers team that has lost three in a row, but Rodgers at night is a formidable foe.

By the time that nationally televised NBC game is over, the Bills still may not be the New York team with the NFL’s second-best record. It will depend upon what the 6-1 New York Giants get done in the late afternoon as they visit the Seattle Seahawks as 3-point underdogs.

Yes, the sportsbooks have made Brian Daboll’s team a ‘dog again, and if you think the head coach is not using that as motivation, you are dead wrong. The Giants rewarded their moneyline and spread bettors each of the past three weeks, when they were getting 8 1/2 against the Packers, 5 1/2 against the Ravens, and 3 against the Jaguars.

They will be facing a Seattle team that has won two straight in convincing fashion against the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Chargers. That moved them into first place in the NFC West, and Bet MGM is seeing equal action come in on both teams.

Where Is The Money Going This Weekend?

What comes as a mild surprise is that folks are betting against Allen and the Bills, with 71% of bets and 65% of handle coming in on the visiting Packers. But given Rodgers’ record in night games, it is understandable.

“The public is eyeing the Cardinals (at Minnesota) and Packers in Week 8. We’re also expecting more action on the Giants and Jets as we approach Sunday,”  said Seamus Magee, sports trader at BetMGM.

Ah, yes. The Jets.

Their fans are unsure what to do with themselves. They are ecstatic about the four-game winning streak, and they are depressed about the season-ending injury to rookie running back Breece Hall. They also are waiting patiently for Zach Wilson to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since Oct. 2.

Perhaps he’ll even throw one to Elijah Moore, who was benched last week after demanding a trade following a dust-up with offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. Anyone wanting to bet on Wilson throwing a TD pass and Moore scoring a TD cannot get that parlay at any of the nine licensed New York sportsbooks, whose parlay offerings are overly restrictive.

But you can reliably bet that Wilson, Moore and plenty of their teammates will be extra motivated for this matchup with the New England Patriots. That’s because they remember how the Pats poured it on against their reserves in Week 7 last season, as New England defeated the Jets 54-13, scoring 20 fourth-quarter points.

Gang Green is getting 2 1/2 points against the Patriots, who are 3-4 and coming off a 33-14 loss to a very ordinary Chicago Bears team. Only a limited number of tickets were available Friday, and the first sellout in more than three years is possible. If not, it’ll happen in a week, because the Bills will be visiting and it has already sold out.

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The Patriots have one of the NFL’s best passing defenses. Nobody can reliably predict whether the Jets will try to continue their rushing-oriented ground-and-pound scheme. That will be difficult with Hall gone for the year and newly acquired James Robinson, acquired in a trade with Jacksonville, still learning the playbook.

Wilson went 10-for-12 for 128 yards and led two touchdown drives to rally the Jets from a 10-point deficit against the Steelers. But his total passing yards (693) in four games are 308 fewer than what Joe Flacco produced in the first three games of the season. Wilson ranks 36th in passing yardage and still has only one TD pass, which is fairly incredible for a team with a 5-2 record.

“Zach is a ton better than he was a year ago, and he’s going to continue to get better,” head coach Robert Saleh said. “There are four or five passes where we’re always going to want back. But I’m not sounding the alarm on the pass game yet.

Wilson, in his second season after being the overall No. 2 pick out of BYU, threw two TD passes in a loss to the Eagles last season after going three straight games without one. So those who believe history will repeat itself can get odds of -250 for Wilson to throw a single TD passb.

But if -250 odds excite you, then we recommend a night out at the movies to help you change your game. Wilson rushed for 24 yards a week ago, and his over/under for rushing yardage is only 12 1/2 yards. There are no props listed for Jets running backs, as everyone waits to see whether Salah features Michael Carter or the newly acquired Robinson.

Let’s face it, the Jets are a tough bet this week. But if you want a flier, Moore is +2800 at DraftKings to score two or more touchdowns, and DK is offering a 100% profit boost on NFL bets this weekend. (Be certain to opt-in at the top of the screen, and then be certain to check the “profit boost” box in the betslip, where you have to scroll down to find it). But that flier is dependent upon Moore getting what he wants: more passes thrown his way. He had five TDs in his final six games last season, two coming in one game against the Colts, and he is overdue for TD #1 this season.

What About the Better of the Two NY Overachievers?

The Giants have not played the Seahawks since late in the 2020 season. That’s when the Seahawks led by the odd score of 5-0 at halftime, but ended up losing 17-12, despite being a double-digit favorite playing at home. Giants QB Daniel Jones was sidelined by a hamstring injury. That was the season when the NFC East was awful and the Giants were in playoff contention despite being only 5-7 as they came back from a season-opening five-game losing streak.

Jones is coming off a very efficient 19-for-30 game against Jacksonville in which he did not throw an interception for the fourth straight week. Limiting their own mistakes and capitalizing on their opponents’ second-half miscues has been a recurring theme in the Giants’ 6-1 start. Their fans are learning to be patient while awaiting the second-half adjustments that Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka make.

The Giants were just one yard away from losing on the final play last week, yet they got the job done with a gang tackle of Christian Kirk just shy of the end zone. It was their most recent victory is a season of improbable victories.

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Finding a Giants bet that makes sense aside from the spread (the Giants are a league-leading 6-1-0 ATS) is tricky. That’s because aside from knowing that Saquon Barkley will be the focal point of the offense, there is a risk in wagering that he will score two or more touchdowns for the first time in a game all season.

That wager is +470 at FanDuel. But if you would prefer to wager on Jones targeting wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson for a second straight week, he is +2400 to score two or more touchdowns.

Darius Slayton, who had three receptions and a TD last week against the Jaguars, is on the board at +2700 to score two or more TDs.

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The Giants have gone over only twice in seven games, and the over/under of 44 1/2 is their second-highest of the season. Seattle is impossible to predict scoring-wise, having combined for 93 points against the Lions, and then totaling just 28 two weeks later against Arizona. Geno Smith is seventh in the NFL in passing yardage, just behind Allen, as the Seahawks get used to life after Russell Wilson.

If recent history holds, this one will be riveting from about 6:25 p.m. onward, and will be the perfect leadup to Packers-Bills.

What is the Best Buffalo Bet?

Allen is second to Patrick Mahomes (20) in touchdown passes with 17, and had played one fewer game because of the bye week. He is +700 at DraftKings to have the highest passing yardage total of any quarterback, and Mahomes is having a bye week.

Stefon Diggs is tied for second for the most touchdowns by a receiver, and he is +1200 at Draft Kings (do not forget the 100% profit boost) to have the most yardage of any receiver.

The Bills are 4-1-1 against the spread and have gone under in five of six games. But betting against Allen and Rodgers putting on an aerial show is a risky wager. The over/under of 47 1/2 is the fourth-highest on the board, and the thought here is that primetime will bring out better from Rodgers than what we have been seeing. Can Allen do better? Of course. But Rodgers has a lot of public support getting 11 points, so we are wary of going too hard on Allen and the rest of the Bills.

Buffalo may be the current heavy Super Bowl favorite at +250, but the journey to get there will have obstacles. Rodgers remains a formidable one, especially under the lights, as the Bills themselves let everyone know on Twitter: