Study: Illegal Betting to Dominate $6.4 Billion in Super Bowl Wagering

Posted on: February 9, 2025, 10:27h. 

Last updated on: February 9, 2025, 10:27h.

Mark Keast Read More

Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.

Just hours to go before kickoff, and there’s been no shortage of studies and surveys shining a light on the behemoth that is Super Bowl betting.

H2 Gambling Capital – the global specialist gambling sector market data provider – sent out a report last week projecting a record number of wagers from onshore licensed sportsbooks in the U.S. – $1.6 billion. New York is projected to overtake Nevada in handle ($181 million, with Nevada at $177 million).

AGA: $1.39B in Betting on the Big Game 

The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will wager a record $1.39 billion legally on Super Bowl LIX.

And this morning from BetMGM: “As Super Bowl bets continue to pour in, BetMGM still needs the Eagles,” said Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager, BetMGM. “We’re also cheering for a red/pink Gatorade bath, Saquon to stay out of the endzone, and the defenses to shine for the Under.”

With the excitement around the big game, this is also a good time for organizations like the Campaign for Fairer Gambling (CFG) to get out their key messages. CFG is an independent advocacy group pursuing “a bi-partisan agenda of advancing both consumer protection and harm amelioration in gambling”.

In a statement released Friday, CFG said they commissioned the technical intelligence platform Yield Sec to do up an estimates report on Super Bowl online betting for today, all to shine a light on the dominance of illegal betting on the game.

Yield Sec: 75% of Wagers Going to Illegal Operators

Yield Sec estimates that total online wagers by Americans will hit $6.4 billion, with three-quarters (75%, or $4.8 billion) going to illegal online sports betting operators ($1.6 billion to legal, licensed U.S. sports betting operators). YieldSec projects a total of 429 million bets on the game.

As an evidence-based gambling reform advocate, I want to understand the truth about the entire online gambling market,” said Derek Webb, Founder of the Campaign for Fairer Gambling. “Yield Sec has an exceptional ability to estimate the total market, including legal and illegal participation. This report shows that the illegal industry continues to grow and that legalization proponents are misrepresenting the benefits of legalization. The American economy and American consumers are paying the price.”

An edge the illegal operators have is being able to offer novelty bets to bring in bettors outside of the hardcore sports crowd. U.S. sportsbook can’t offer those. That type of betting is allowed in Ontario, where we’ve talked about the popularity of markets around Taylor Swift, for example – “Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift?” currently has odds of +800 for “yes” (getting 78% of tickets) and -2000 for “no” (22% of tickets, 58% of handle) at BetMGM in Ontario.

According to CFG, during last year’s Super Bowl, quoting Yield Sec, there were 350 million total bets placed on the game, at a total value of $5.4 billion. Out of that, 122 million of those wagers, or $1.4 billion, were legal.

The Taylor Swift Effect

Yield Sec estimates that 25% of females will bet on this year’s game, up from 21% last year.

Last year, Yield Sec predicted Americans would place $5.4 billion in online bets on the big game, of which just $1.4 bn would be bet legally,” Yield Sec CEO Ismail Vali said in a statement. “We were right. And, if we are right on the legal number, then we are right on the illegal number. The Yield Sec platform uses an apples and apples methodology for looking across all of the audience, all of their activity, all of the time.”

The outcome of what will be a tight game between the Eagles and Chiefs is by no means a sure thing. What is for certain is America’s growing appetite for putting a wager down on the result.