Sexiest Man Alive Odds & Predictions: The Favorite Heartthrobs

Despite a potential resolution date as late as December 31, 2026, Polymarket has already received significant interest in the People’s Sexiest Man Alive market. 

This allows you to buy and sell shares on which hunk will follow in the footsteps of Patrick Dempsey, John Krasinski, and Jonathan Bailey to win the magazine’s prestigious award. 

Volume has already surpassed $109,000, with the frontrunners comprising the usual suspects of international artists, Hollywood stars, and top athletes. But is the smart money on the current favorite or an outsider? Let’s take a closer look at the initial market movements and best value picks in 2026.

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Where Has Money Been Spent So Far?

The list of candidates for the People’s Sexiest Man Alive features eight handsome celebrities. While it’s not inconceivable that other names may come into consideration before the market is resolved, Bad Bunny, Connor Storrie, and Michael B. Jordan are the clear favorites at the time of writing.

Puerto Rican singer, producer, and actor Bad Bunny’s probability increased from just 12% to a peak of 34% in the wake of his controversial Super Bowl LX. Although this has since dropped back, he remains the front runner thanks in part to his broad cross-industry appeal. His bold and fluid sense of style continues to attract attention and generate headlines, too.

He may not have the same profile, but Connor Storrie’s stock has risen immensely since appearing as a breakout star of the romantic drama “Heated Rivalry”. His co-star Hudson Williams is also a contender, creating a scenario where selectors may be split between the pair.

Michael B. Jordan and Timothée Chalamet are also strong contenders, with the last six winners categorized as being on-screen talent. 

Bad Bunny Odds – A High-Profile Contender Who May Have Already Peaked

“Bad Bunny” | “Yes” at 28¢ | 24% Chance

It’s been quite a year for Bad Bunny. Prior to his ground-breaking DeBí TiRAR MáS FOToS World Tour, the 32-year-old made history by becoming the first artist to win “Album of the Year” at the Grammys with an all-Spanish-language record. 

A headline performance at Super Bowl LX followed just 7 days later, capping an incredible start to 2026 and helping Bad Bunny to build some significant momentum in this market. The Puerto Rican rapper has a penchant for remaining in the news cycle, too, having deleted his Instagram account and wiped out 51 million global followers after the political backlash to his Super Bowl shoe.

This year also saw Bad Bunny overtake Taylor Swift as the top global artist on Spotify, breaking the record for the most single-day streams with a peak of 82 million. His constant chart presence keeps him permanently in the minds of People’s editorial board and executive staff.

Bad Bunny’s “Yes” price may have already peaked on US prediction markets, however, with the current benchmark of 28¢ significantly higher than his win probability of 24%. This is indicative of a low EV trade, while it’s unlikely to rise much higher prior to settlement. So, unless you want to buy “Yes” shares now and hold until the winner is announced, you may want to seek out alternative trades and options.

Michael B. Jordan Markets – An Underpriced Frontrunner With Huge Upside

Michael B. Jordan | “Yes” at 27.7¢ | 17% Chance

Not only do Hollywood’s leading men have a huge profile advantage over most musicians, but People Magazine’s November award selection window coincides with a high volume of autumn movie releases and speculation ahead of the upcoming Oscars.

This is why Michael B. Jordan offers such excellent value. The 2020 award winner has both directed and starred in the highly-anticipated “Thomas Crown Affair”, which is a high-budget romantic heist thriller that co-stars Adria Arjona.

This is slated for release on March 5th, 2027, which means that Jordan’s press tour and media appearances will gather momentum just as People Magazine’s selection committee starts its formal deliberations.

Remember, Jordan is also established as one of Hollywood’s biggest names, with his starring roles in Creed and Black Panther affording him a huge global following. 

Jordan’s “Yes” shares have recently soared from 14.6¢ to 27.7¢ on Polymarket, creating a more realistic win probability in the process. This also represents a hike of 89.73% in just seven days, so you can already sell your position profitably if you bought in at the lower price.

However, Jordan’s price could peak in the 35¢ – 45¢ range during the autumn, creating a further opportunity to sell and lock in a significant profit. Although this increases the risk of you being caught in a low-liquidty trap, insider information seems to be suggesting that Jordan is emerging as the frontrunner.

Connor Storrie Odds – A Young Contender With Minimal Upside

Connor Storrie | “Yes” at 17¢ | 13% Chance

Heated Rivalry is established at Crave’s most-watched original series to date, with the chemistry between co-stars Hudson Williams and Connor Storrie central to the drama’s sustained commercial success.

Storrie received an Emmy nomination following his star turn, ensuring that both his profile and his stock remain high. As a result, his win probability has remained relatively consistent between 9% and 14% since June 1st, while it’s currently hovering around the 13% mark.

However, there are several obstacles to trading “Yes” on Storrie. Firstly, his price of 17¢ is noticeably higher than his win probability, which hints at negative EV trade. Secondly, Storrie is just 26 years old, while the average age of the Sexiest Man Alive ranges between 38 and 40.

Storrie’s co-star Hudson Williams is also in contention, so selectors may be split between the two during the deliberation window.

Overall, Storrie is an unlikely winner, while his “Yes” price continues to trade within an incredibly low range. This suggests that there’s minimal upside here, while trading “No” at 95¢ only unlocks nominal profits even if you hold until settlement. So, I’d recommend avoiding Storrie in this market and investing your capital elsewhere.

Timothée Chalamet Odds – A High Value Pick

Timothée Chalamet | “Yes” at 10.8¢ | 6% Chance

Last but not least, we come to actor Timothée Chalamet. The 30-year-old has seen his price soar over the last few days, rising from just 0.8¢ on August 13th to 10.8¢ at the time of writing. It has previously peaked as high as 40¢, too, so there’s clearly scope for further growth prior to settlement.

Chalamet ticks a number of boxes as a potential Sexiest Man Alive award winner. Since April 2023, for example, he has been in a relationship with socialite and entrepreneur Kylie Jenner, increasing his total social media following by around 3.2 million.

What’s more, the French-American actor will be involved in two film releases in the coming months. “Dune: Part Three” is slated to be released on December 18, 2026, so he’ll be conducting his own media tour throughout the fall. 

He’ll also star alongside Selena Gomez in the romance science fiction comedy “Not Alone”, with this film set to make its Box Office debut on April 16th, 2027.

Polymarket currently gives Chalamet a 6% win probability, so his current price of 10.8¢ offers obvious value. Buying “Yes” shares now at this price unlocks a huge possible upside, especially when you consider the actor’s high profile and potential for late-year visibility on the national chat show circuit. 

The Last Word – How Will the Market Be Resolved?

Whether you’re backing the mysterious look of Bad Bunny, Michael B. Jordan’s Hollywood smile, or Timothée Chalamet to finally make the cover, it’s important to understand how Polymarket resolves the market.  

It is based on the person named by People Magazine as the Sexiest Man Alive. I expect an outcome by early to mid-November if previous years are anything to go by. 

While it has never happened before, the market will resolve to “Other” should People shock us all by announcing multiple winners. So, strap in and keep a close eye on odds changes for this dashing market at Polymarket. 

Since it’s hard to accurately predict a winner in this market, a better strategy is to buy underpriced outcomes and flip them for a profit. This requires you to set a viable exit strategy, which helps you to lock in a profit and avoid low liquidity traps.

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