Prop Bet: Will the Buffalo Bills Make the Playoffs?

Posted on: December 22, 2023, 01:07h. 

Last updated on: December 25, 2023, 11:04h.

Pauly McGuire Read More
Expertise: Sports Betting, Sports.

According to a prop bet by DraftKings, the Buffalo Bills are -210 odds to make the playoffs. You can fade them at +170 odds to miss the playoffs.

Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) celebrates a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys with tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) and running back Latavius Murray (28). (Image: Getty)

Upshot recently updated their playoff projections, giving the Bills a 63% chance of advancing to the postseason.

The Bills (8-6) are playing their best ball of the season, but they’re currently ranked ninth in the AFC. Only seven teams advance to the postseason from each conference, including four division winners and three wild-card teams.

If the season ended today, the Baltimore Ravens (11-3) would earn the #1 seed in the AFC. The Miami Dolphins (10-4) are currently in the #2 seed, followed by the Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) as the #3 seed, and the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6) as the #4 seed. The three AFC wild-card teams are the Cleveland Browns (9-5) as the #5 seed, the Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) as the #6 seed, and the Indianapolis Colts (8-6) as the #7 seed.

The Houston Texans (8-6) are on the bubble in the eighth overall spot, and just ahead of the Bills in ninth.

Bills: 3-1 Since Dorsey Got Fired

Since the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, their offense has looked much better in the last four games. Josh Allen accepted full responsibility for Dorsey’s dismissal, and he’s been playing with more gusto. The Bills went 3-1 with one loss against the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime in Week 12.

The Bills have been in “playoff mode” since their bye week. They went on the road and defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, 20-17, in a must-win situation in Week 14.

Last Sunday, in Week 15, the Bills easily defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 31-10, to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Allen has completed 66.3% of his passes this season for 3,541 passing yards with 26 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He’s not running the ball as frequently (80 rushes) or effectively (5.0 yards per carry) as he did in previous seasons. But he scored a career-high 11 rushing touchdowns through 14 games this season. He’s tallied four rushing scores in the last three games.

Second-year running back James Cook stepped up this season, and the Bills have been running the ball more efficiently since they fired Dorsey. Cook is coming off the best game of the season after he gashed the Cowboys for 179 rushing yards, 42 receiving yards, and two combined touchdowns.

Cook rushed 188 times for 968 yards, and two touchdowns this season. He’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry. He also added 40 receptions for 433 yards and four touchdowns.

On the defensive end, the Bills are peaking at the right time. They held opponents to 10 or fewer points twice in their last three victories.

Betting the Bills on the Futures Market

With three games remaining on the schedule, the Bills host only one more home game, playing against the New England Patriots in Week 17 on New Year’s Eve. They hit the road to play the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday in Week 16. They end the season in Miami to play the Dolphins in Week 18.

The Bills are a -12 favorite against the Chargers. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is banged up, and the Chargers are starting Easton Stick at quarterback after Justin Herbert sustained a season-ending injury.

The final week of the season could ultimately determine whether the Bills make the playoffs. That’s when they head to Miami to play a divisional rival. The Bills already defeated the Dolphins once this season, demolishing them 48-20, in a Week 4 blowout.

If the Dolphins lose all their remaining games, then the Bills can snatch away the AFC East division crown by winning all of their games, including a victory against the Dolphins in Week 18. The Dolphins are -270 odds to win the AFC East while the Bills are +210 odds.

The Dolphins have a 73% chance to win the division, according to a projection by Upshot. The Bills have a 27% chance to pull off a huge coup.

The Bills are +1200 odds to win Super Bowl LVIII. They hit a low point of +5000 odds at the end of Week 13, but have since rebounded. The Bills are fourth on the NFL futures board at +650 odds to win the AFC Championship.