Macquarie: The Stock Divide Between Online Casinos and Sportsbooks is Widening
Posted on: May 19, 2026, 12:38h.
Last updated on: May 20, 2026, 10:50h.
- Q1 results highlight a widening performance gap between iGaming and sportsbook operators
- Market momentum strongly favors online casino stocks over sports betting peers
- Current stock volatility is being fueled by trader sentiment rather than fundamental changes
With gaming industry first-quarter earnings season in the books, it’s clear market participants are expressing a preference for iGaming-centric operators over sportsbook-heavy peers.
On the whole, the online gaming sector delivered robust first-quarter results, marked by EBITDA beats and slight upward revisions to full-year guidance.
However, a new report to clients from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon highlights a “pronounced dispersion” in performance. The data tilts heavily in favor of iGaming-focused operators like Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI) and Super Group (NYSE: SGHC), while sportsbook-heavy giants DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) are facing tougher headwinds.
The analyst points to reported EBITDA minus stocks’ post-earnings moves as indicative of a “growing divergence” between iGaming-focused operators and their sportsbook-centric peers. Said another way, Rush Street and Super Group surged well in excess of reported EBITDA while FanDuel owner Flutter languished.
Taken together, this underscores that Online stock moves are increasingly being driven by positioning, sentiment, and macro/narrative factors rather than changes in earnings expectations,” writes Beynon.
The analyst adds momentum is on the side of online gaming operators while sportsbook-dependent peers are contending with volatile patterns and reinvestment costs, including expenditures related to prediction markets.
‘Clear Bifurcation’ Emerging
Over the past month, shares of Super Group and Rush Street Interactive are higher by 22.1% and 21%, respectively, cementing the notion that for investors, online gaming is where it’s at.
Super Group’s performance is all the more impressive when considering the company doesn’t operate in the US while Rush Street is benefiting from online gaming expansion in this country and its status as a gaming stock that offers prediction markets protection – a favorable trait relative to sportsbook-heavy counterparts.
Said another way, there’s a divide between higher margin iGaming and sports wagering and Wall Street and retail investors are taking note.
“Overall, 1Q26 reinforces a clear bifurcation within Online, with iGaming- driven models continuing to deliver positive estimate momentum and higher-quality growth, while sportsbook-heavy operators face greater volatility, and highlights a market dynamic where equity performance is only partially explained by fundamentals,” adds Beynon.
Prediction Markets Talk
As has been well-documented, prediction markets are viewed as a competitive threat to sportsbook operators such as DraftKings and FanDuel, but there’s some belief that threat is overstated.
“Prediction markets were a key topic across calls, but we continue to view the competitive threat as limited given product constraints, with activity from DKNG and FLUT better characterized as incremental participation rather than structural disruption,” observes Beynon.
Both of those companies have organic prediction market platforms and to DraftKings’ credit, the stock is up 13.1% over the past month due in part to management’s encouraging commentary around event contracts, including cost efficiencies, market making and expansion of its total addressable market.
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