Highest Grossing Movie 2026 Odds: Who Are Film Buffs Backing?

I think we can all agree that it hasn’t been a stellar year for film. Nothing released this year will come close to the $2.26 billion grossed by Ne Zha 2 in 2025. This hasn’t put traders off the “Highest Grossing Movie in 2026” predictions market at Polymarket. Its volume was over $15 million at the time of writing, impressive for a market that opened on November 11, 2025. 

So, which blockbuster will follow in the footsteps of Titanic, Armageddon, The Dark Knight, Barbie, and Inside Out 2 to be named the highest-grossing movie of the year? Let’s consider the frontrunners and their odds, as well as the best value picks.

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What is the Highest Grossing Movie of 2026 So Far?

Remember earlier when I said it hasn’t been a year full of major releases? The Super Mario Galaxy Movie has grossed just over $1 billion globally. With just 5 months remaining until this market is resolved, that’s still over $1 billion behind what Ne Zha 2 made last year.

The animated comedy film featuring Jack Black, Chris Pratt, and other Hollywood superstars hit the theaters on April 1. However, after being slammed by many for its incoherent storyline, the film’s “Yes” probability on Polymarket dropped from 46% to 1% between March 13 and July 27th. With a “No” price of ¢99.5, it seems inevitable that this Nintendo sequel won’t come out on top. 

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Why Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the Clear Favorite

Anticipation for the new Spider-Man movie has reached a fever pitch. Hitting theatres on July 29, Tom Holland returns as Peter Parker, alongside other familiar faces from the Marvel Universe. 

Achieving over $400,000 in volume on Polymarket already, Spider-Man: Brand New Day currently has a 74% chance. That’s up from 32% on March 12. The movie is set four years after the memory-wipe spell, and the trailer teased the return of an unexpected superhero, Hulk! 

Spider-Man: No Way Home was the highest-grossing film of 2021 ($1,922,598,800), and early odds suggest it could be another success for Columbia Pictures and Marvel Studios.

Other Highest Grossing Movie in 2026 Odds

Here’s a closer look at some of the other contenders.

“Avengers: Doomsday” | “Yes” at 11¢ | 11% Chance

If this market were settled based on the movie with the most Hollywood stars, Avengers: Doomsday would be miles ahead. Robert Downey Jr., Pedro Pascal, Florence Pugh, and Chris Hemsworth all feature in a cast that reads like a who’s who of superhero cinema. 

However, with a December 18 release date, time is against the fifth installment in the Avengers series. That perhaps explains its 11% probability and 11¢ “Yes” price at Polymarket. The film peaked at 35% on April 5 but has been in steady decline since then.

“The Odyssey” | “Yes” at 2.9¢ | 3% Chance

Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey hit theatres at the beginning of July. First announced in late 2024, the fantasy action movie had a $250 million budget. Matt Damon is joined by Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Tom Holland, and Zendaya. 

I’m surprised that the probability on Polymarket is only 3%, especially given its impressive opening-weekend figures. The movie has taken nearly $650 million at the box office, which is more than Nolan’s much-heralded Oppenheimer. 

It’s the first film shot entirely using IMAX cameras. Having already received rave reviews, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the probability percentage at Polymarket increase in the coming weeks.

“Toy Story 5” | “Yes” at 2¢ | 2% Chance

Toy Story 5 certainly doesn’t deliver the same high-octane scenes as the movies above. However, the return of Woody, Buzz, Jessie, and the rest of the gang will be just as exciting for a particular audience. 

The sixth installment in Pixar’s hugely popular franchise grossed $159.7 million in its first three days after release. This animated adventure is on track to make $1.1 billion. This hasn’t been enough to sway Polymarket traders. The probability dropped from 33.1% to 2% between June 12 and July 27.

Are There Any Outsiders With Value?

I’ll keep this brief. No. Seven other movies are in this Polymarket market, all currently at 1%. The Hunger Games: Sunrise of the Reaping and Jumanji 3 are released in November and December, respectively, although neither is likely to make a significant difference to the odds. Here are some alternative picks available on Polymarket.

• Star Wars: The Mandalorian: Yes 0.2¢
• Jumanji 3: Yes 0.2¢
• The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping: Yes 0.3¢
• Wicked: For Good: Yes 0.2¢
• Scream 7: Yes 0.2¢
• Wuthering Heights: Yes 0.2¢
• Michael: Yes 0.2¢
• Project Hail Mary: Yes 0.2¢

How Will the “Highest Grossing Movie 2026” Market Be Settled?

Polymarket will settle this market based on the film with the highest gross of the year, according to Box Office Mojo. We’ll only get an outcome once the data for December 31 has been released. 

It will be obvious to most of you, but the domestic calendar gross in 2026 contributes.  While it’s a seriously long shot, the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner in the event of a tie. 

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