Highest Grossing Movie 2026 Odds: Who Are Film Buffs Backing?

Even prior to the release of Spider-Man: Brand New Day on July 27th, this Marvel film was the heavy favorite to be the highest-grossing of 2026.

This outcome already had an 83% win probability on July 26th, but this has since increased to 91% after the movie smashed a series of Box Office records.

However, the film’s odds have declined by five percentage points since October 14th. This has followed the initial commercial success of “Avengers: Doomsday”, which has generated more than $125 million in worldwide advance ticket sales. This is despite the movie’s release being a little over six weeks away.

This has altered the dynamics of this market, which has now seen more than $17.8 million traded in total. Although traders have increasingly looked to hold their existing positions, some are now looking to leverage short-term gains through the upcoming Avengers film. But what are the best value picks in the market at the time of writing?

We have an exclusive Polymarket bonus (CORG), and you can earn $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. If you want to look at other platform options, read our guide to entertainment betting.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day Odds – Buy “Yes” Shares and Wait Until Settlement

“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” | “Yes” at 91¢ | 91% Chance

There were obvious signs that Spider-Man: Brand New Day was going to be a huge hit at the Box Office. The trailer amassed over 718 million views in just 24 hours after its launch, for example, while pre-sales peaked above $80 million in the week prior to release.

However, few could have imagined the scale of this film’s initial commercial success. It cleared a record $360.09 million domestically during the opening weekend alone, breaking the previous benchmark set by Avengers: Endgame.

Overall, Spider-Man: Brand New Day has generated approximately $958.7 million in US cinemas since its release, and Polymarket will use this domestic data to settle the market. 

At the time of writing, The Odyssey is the second best-performing film stateside, but this has grossed just $625.5 million despite launching two weeks earlier. Interestingly, the New Day film is now the highest-grossing ever at the US Box Office, overtaking the former number one Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It’s highly likely to top the charts in 2026.

However, the sustained hype surrounding the Avengers film has caused Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s “Yes” price to contract by 5.21% to 91¢. This arguably creates greater upside if you’re looking to buy in now, as holding until settlement could deliver an ROI of 9.89% in barely two months.

This is a decent rate of return, and one that outpaces similarly low-risk investment vehicles. If you already hold “Yes” shares, there’s still value in maintaining your position until the market resolves.

Get a $20 trading bonus when you make a $10 deposit

Claim bonus

Promotional code

CORG Copy

Over 18s only. Terms and Conditions apply

Avengers: Doomsday Odds – The Ultimate Longshot – But it’s Already a Profitable Trade

“Avengers: Doomsday” | “Yes” at 9.9¢ | 10% Chance

The early success of Avengers: Doomsday has certainly sent shockwaves through this particular market. This Marvel / Disney collaboration has a scheduled US release date of December 18th, 2026, shortly before Polymarket settles the year’s highest-grossing film.

In addition to its staggering advance ticket sales, the official trailer generated an impressive 503 million views in just 24 hours after launch. Polymarket is also offering odds on which movie will have the highest grossing opening weekend in 2026, with Doomsday surging to a commanding 59%–67% position at the time of writing.

Of course, it’s highly unlikely that this movie could supersede Spider-Man’s commercial performance in a brief, two-week window. However, the film will benefit from a huge marketing campaign during the fall, which has the potential to drive high levels of trader sentiment online.

Remember, you don’t need Avengers: Doomsday to actually become the highest-grossing film in 2026 for “Yes” shares to deliver a profit.  You simply require the price to increase amid casual trader sentiment and endless news coverage as the fall progresses.

If you bought in at the previous price of 3.9¢ when we recommended on October 14th, you could sell now for an ROI of 153.85% in less than three weeks. This is arguably your best course of action.

If you have a slightly greater appetite for risk, you can also hold for the time being. This could unlock an optimal exit point between 15¢ and 20¢, especially given the historical power of Disney’s huge, year-end promotions. Just note that this is a highly speculative trade, and one that may incur low liquidity if you hold too long.

The Odyssey Odds – A Former Frontrunner That Now Has Minimal Upside

“The Odyssey” | “Yes” at 0.1¢ | <1% Chance

Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey hit theaters at the beginning of July. First announced in late 2024, the fantasy action movie had a $250 million budget. Matt Damon starred alongside Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Tom Holland, and Zendaya. 

This stellar cast combined to create an epic film, which as we’ve touched on, has grossed around $625.5 million domestically to become the second-best performing movie so far this year. 

However, it has no realistic chance of toppling Spider-Man: Brand New Day, with the film’s win probability falling to less than 1%. Unlike Avengers: Doomsday, the current price of just 0.1¢ has minimal upside and has already peaked, while The Odyssey’s current expansion is focused on global markets.

So, I’d recommend that you avoid this film completely in the Highest Grossing Movie market. However, The Odyssey also features in a number of alternative prediction markets, including “The #1 Searched Movie on Google in 2026” and several Oscars’ categories.

The Last Word – Navigating a Difficult and Restricted Market

Ultimately, Spider-Man: Brand New Day remains highly likely to be the highest-grossing movie in the US in 2026. It has already generated well over than $958 million domestically, and now has a 91% chance of topping this market.

However, the Avengers: Doomsday movie has emerged as a potential short-term hedge to Brand New Day. It’s “Yes” price has increased by more than 150% this month, in the wake of impressive official trailer views and advance ticket sales of $125 million worldwide.

If you bought “Yes” shares in Doomsday at 3.9¢, now may be the ideal time to sell. Although you can potentially hold on for longer as the film benefits from a sustained marketing campaign, this also increases the risk of being caught in a liquidity trap. Just remember, the movie is unlikely to gross as much as Spider-Man: Brand New Day in 2026, due to its late release date of December 18th.

Whichever contract you chose, be sure to track your positions and all relevant breaking news on a frequent basis. This will help you to make smart decisions, and potentially identify new prediction markets as they’re published on Polymarket!

Want to make any of these trades? Use our exclusive CORG promo code on Polymarket to earn a $20 trading bonus when you register and deposit $10.